NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Aaron Nesmith

Pacers vs Pelicans · Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET

12.5 Pts O -106U -121

Hit rate · Last 5 80%4/5 Odds imply 48.4% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 15.8
Graph median: 15.05.0–26.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

Aaron Nesmith points by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 12.5.

Splits all logged games · over 12.5

Home 53% 10/19 · avg 14.2
Away 50% 13/26 · avg 13.5
vs Pelicans 0% 0/1 · avg 12.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 10.5 80% 4/5
O 11.5 80% 4/5
O 12.5 Today 80% 4/5
O 13.5 80% 4/5
O 14.5 60% 3/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Game log · 5 games

Date	Opp	Pts	vs 12.5	Close
2026-03-27	vs Clippers	26	Over	—
2026-03-25	vs Lakers	14	Over	—
2026-03-23	@ Magic	19	Over	—
2026-03-21	@ Spurs	5	Under	—
2026-03-18	vs Trail Blazers	15	Over	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 12.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.