NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Pelle Larsson G

Heat vs Timberwolves · Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET

3.5 Ast O +117U -154

Hit rate · Last 5 40%2/5 Odds imply 43.2% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 3.2
Graph median: 3.01.0–6.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

Pelle Larsson assists by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 3.5.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 54% 19/35 · avg 3.5
Away 29% 10/35 · avg 3.3
vs Timberwolves 0% 0/1 · avg 1.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 80% 4/5
O 2.5 60% 3/5
O 3.5 Today 40% 2/5
O 4.5 20% 1/5
O 5.5 20% 1/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · Guards vs Timberwolves

What Timberwolves allowed to Guards per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 30 defenses.

Pts58.9#1
Ast14.1#7
3PM5.2#22
Reb17.5#2

Game log · 5 games

Date	Opp	Ast	vs 3.5	Close
2026-04-14	@ Hornets	3	Under	—
2026-04-10	@ Wizards	6	Over	—
2026-04-09	@ Raptors	2	Under	—
2026-04-07	@ Raptors	1	Under	—
2026-04-04	vs Wizards	4	Over	—

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.