CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Greg Gaines WR

Florida International vs Middle Tennessee · Tue Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ET

29.5 Rec Yds O +115U —

Hit rate · This season 40%2/5 Odds imply —

Season avg: 22.2
Graph avg: 22.2
Graph median: 21.02–50
Over the close: 0%0/1

2026 per game

Rec1.6

Rec Yds22.2

Rec TD0.0

29.5

2026

8

Sep 05
21

Sep 12
50

Sep 26
30

Oct 07
2

Oct 13
?

Oct 20

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 29.5

Home 67% 2/3 · avg 33.7
Away 0% 0/2 · avg 5.0
vs Middle Tennessee No games

Alt lines this season · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 60% 3/5
O 24.5 40% 2/5
O 29.5 Today 40% 2/5
O 34.5 20% 1/5
O 39.5 20% 1/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · receivers vs Middle Tennessee

What Middle Tennessee allowed to receivers per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 185 defenses.

Rec Yds221.6#52
Receptions16.0#75
Yds/Rec13.8#50
Rec TD1.7#64

WRs vs Middle Tennessee · 2026

Each main WR who faced Middle Tennessee this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-13.5

Avg diff %-27%

Beat their average30% (3/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 13	Da'Wain Lofton	40	68.0	-41%
Oct 13	Sean Wilson	35	60.8	-42%
Oct 03	Nik McMillan	30	74.0	-59%
Oct 03	Cam Pickett	49	48.0	+2%
Sep 26	Deondre Johnson	57	62.3	-9%
Sep 26	Luke Gilbert	39	37.5	+4%
Sep 19	Gary Givens III	38	55.5	-32%
Sep 19	Marshaun Brown	6	22.5	-73%
Sep 12	Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw	79	49.0	+61%
Sep 12	Toby Payne	6	36.2	-83%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 29.5	Close
2026-10-13	7	@ Jacksonville State	2	Under	20.5
2026-10-07	6	vs New Mexico State	30	Over	—
2026-09-26	4	vs Long Island University	50	Over	—
2026-09-12	2	vs Buffalo	21	Under	—
2026-09-05	1	@ South Florida	8	Under	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: ESPN BET, updated 20m ago.