CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Roman Gagliano QB

Middle Tennessee vs Florida International · Tue Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ET

9.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 70%7/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 15.2
Graph avg: 26.8
Graph median: 23.5-24–82
Over the close: 50%1/2

2026 per game

Pass Yds200.7▼-1.5

Att31.3▲+4.3

Cmp%58.5%▲+0.7

Pass TD1.8▲+0.4

INT0.3▲+0.3

Rush Yds15.2▼-16.8

9.5

2025

1

Nov 08
82

Nov 15
67

Nov 22
27

Nov 29
2026

25

Sep 05
58

Sep 12
14

Sep 19
-24

Sep 26
-4

Oct 03
22

Oct 13
?

Oct 20

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 9.5

Home 67% 4/6 · avg 18.7
Away 60% 3/5 · avg 27.8
vs Florida International 0% 0/1 · avg 1.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 70% 7/10
O 9.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 14.5 60% 6/10
O 19.5 60% 6/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs Florida International

What Florida International allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 183 defenses.

Pass Yds205.1#129
Yds/Att6.4#155
Cmp%57.4%#164
Pass TD1.5#92
Pass Att31.9#43

QBs vs Florida International · 2026

Each main QB who faced Florida International this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.0

Avg diff %-224%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 13	Caden Creel	95	67.5	+41%
Oct 07	Adam Damante	-7	1.0	-800%
Sep 12	Jason Wright	3	24.0	-88%
Sep 05	Michael Van Buren Jr.	7	13.3	-48%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 9.5	Close
2026-10-13	7	vs Delaware	22	Over	6.5
2026-10-03	5	@ Kansas	-4	Under	7.5
2026-09-26	4	@ Jacksonville State	-24	Under	—
2026-09-19	3	vs Nevada	14	Over	—
2026-09-12	2	@ Marshall	58	Over	—
2026-09-05	1	vs Murray State	25	Over	—
2025-11-29	14	@ New Mexico State	27	Over	—
2025-11-22	13	vs Sam Houston	67	Over	—
2025-11-15	12	@ Western Kentucky	82	Over	—
2025-11-08	11	vs Florida International	1	Under	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 9.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 31m ago.