CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Grady O'Neill WR

Sam Houston vs New Mexico State · Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O +121U —

Hit rate · Last 5 60%3/5 Odds imply —

Season avg: 4.7
Graph avg: 4.2
Graph median: 5.03–5
Over the close: 0%0/2

2026 per game

Rec4.7▲+1.2

Rec Yds43.3▲+7.7

Rec TD0.3▲+0.2

4.5

2026

5

Sep 12
5

Sep 19
5

Sep 26
3

Oct 08
3

Oct 14
?

Oct 22

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 57% 4/7 · avg 4.1
Away 30% 3/10 · avg 3.7
vs New Mexico State 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 100% 5/5
O 3.5 60% 3/5
O 4.5 Today 60% 3/5
O 5.5 0% 0/5
O 6.5 0% 0/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · receivers vs New Mexico State

What New Mexico State allowed to receivers per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 185 defenses.

Rec Yds208.2#77
Receptions17.2#41
Yds/Rec12.1#134
Rec TD1.4#100

WRs vs New Mexico State · 2026

Each main WR who faced New Mexico State this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.1

Avg diff %+33%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 07	Maguire Anderson	1	6.4	-84%
Oct 07	Kyle Mcneal	2	4.0	-50%
Oct 01	Jonathan Stafford Jr.	10	5.2	+94%
Oct 01	Lofton Howard	3	2.4	+25%
Sep 26	Bailen George	3	2.2	+33%
Sep 26	Troy Omeire	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 12	Tama Uiliata	10	4.0	+150%
Sep 12	Kainoa Carvalho	9	3.8	+135%
Aug 29	Duce Robinson	3	3.2	-5%
Aug 29	Micahi Danzy	4	3.0	+33%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close
2026-10-14	7	vs Western Kentucky	3	Under	3.5
2026-10-08	6	@ Liberty	3	Under	4.5
2026-09-26	4	@ Texas Tech	5	Over	—
2026-09-19	3	vs Nicholls	5	Over	—
2026-09-12	2	vs Tulsa	5	Over	—

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 24m ago.