CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Sam Pickett III WR

Appalachian State vs James Madison · Thu Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -136U —

Hit rate · Last 5 60%3/5 Odds imply —

Season avg: 4.3
Graph avg: 4.2
Graph median: 5.01–6
Over the close: 100%2/2

2026 per game

Rec4.3

Rec Yds68.5

Rec TD0.7

4.5

2026

4

Sep 12
6

Sep 19
5

Sep 26
1

Oct 10
5

Oct 16
?

Oct 22

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 67% 2/3 · avg 4.0
Away 67% 2/3 · avg 4.7
vs James Madison No games

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 80% 4/5
O 3.5 80% 4/5
O 4.5 Today 60% 3/5
O 5.5 20% 1/5
O 6.5 0% 0/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · receivers vs James Madison

What James Madison allowed to receivers per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 185 defenses.

Rec Yds183.4#130
Receptions14.5#123
Yds/Rec12.6#104
Rec TD1.3#113

WRs vs James Madison · 2026

Each main WR who faced James Madison this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.0

Avg diff %+4%

Beat their average42% (5/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 17	Rodshaun Dorsey	3	3.6	-17%
Oct 17	DJ Riles	4	3.4	+18%
Oct 10	Josh Dallas	8	5.5	+45%
Oct 10	River Helms	3	4.0	-25%
Oct 03	Toby Payne	1	4.2	-76%
Oct 03	Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw	4	3.6	+11%
Sep 26	Josh Rodriguez	1	2.7	-62%
Sep 26	Kendall Harris	3	2.2	+36%
Sep 19	Jaylon Hawkins	2	3.3	-40%
Sep 19	Nathan Acevedo	6	2.2	+173%
Sep 05	Makai Jackson	3	3.8	-21%
Sep 05	Jamari Person	2	2.0	+0%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close
2026-10-16	7	@ Coastal Carolina	5	Over	4.5
2026-10-10	6	vs Old Dominion	1	Under	—
2026-09-26	4	@ NC State	5	Over	4.5
2026-09-19	3	vs Charlotte	6	Over	—
2026-09-12	2	@ East Carolina	4	Under	—

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.