CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Elija Lofton WR

Miami vs Pittsburgh · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O -154U +116

Hit rate · Last 5 60%3/5 Odds imply 56.7% Over

Season avg: 2.5
Graph avg: 2.8
Graph median: 3.01–5
Over the close: 100%2/2

2026 per game

Rec2.5▲+0.7

Rec Yds26.7▲+9.9

Rec TD0.3▲+0.1

2.5

2026

1

Sep 10
5

Sep 18
2

Sep 26
3

Oct 03
3

Oct 17
?

Oct 24

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 30% 3/10 · avg 1.9
Away 33% 3/9 · avg 2.1
vs Pittsburgh 0% 0/1 · avg 1.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 100% 5/5
O 1.5 80% 4/5
O 2.5 Today 60% 3/5
O 3.5 20% 1/5
O 4.5 20% 1/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · receivers vs Pittsburgh

What Pittsburgh allowed to receivers per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 185 defenses.

Rec Yds235.1#29
Receptions17.0#47
Yds/Rec13.8#52
Rec TD1.8#50

WRs vs Pittsburgh · 2026

Each main WR who faced Pittsburgh this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %-6%

Beat their average67% (8/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 17	Javarius Green	5	3.6	+39%
Oct 17	John Montague	3	2.7	+13%
Oct 10	Jordan Shipp	6	5.4	+11%
Oct 10	Jelani Thurman	6	4.0	+50%
Oct 02	Que'Sean Brown	7	6.5	+8%
Oct 02	Luke Reynolds	7	6.0	+17%
Sep 17	Umari Hatcher	3	9.4	-68%
Sep 17	Justus Ross-Simmons	1	2.8	-64%
Sep 12	Joshua Derry	2	5.2	-62%
Sep 12	Dylan Wade	2	3.0	-33%
Sep 05	Lynel Billups-Williams	4	3.6	+11%
Sep 05	Maleek Huggins	3	2.8	+7%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close
2026-10-17	7	vs Florida State	3	Over	2.5
2026-10-03	5	@ Clemson	3	Over	2.5
2026-09-26	4	vs Central Michigan	2	Under	—
2026-09-18	3	@ Wake Forest	5	Over	—
2026-09-10	2	vs Florida A&M	1	Under	—

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 6m ago.