CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Grady O'Neill WR

Sam Houston vs New Mexico State · Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET

39.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 5 40%2/5 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 43.3
Graph avg: 34.8
Graph median: 39.05–62
Over the close: 0%0/2

2026 per game

Rec4.7▲+1.2

Rec Yds43.3▲+7.7

Rec TD0.3▲+0.2

39.5

2026

62

Sep 12
44

Sep 19
24

Sep 26
39

Oct 08
5

Oct 14
?

Oct 22

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 39.5

Home 57% 4/7 · avg 37.3
Away 40% 4/10 · avg 39.1
vs New Mexico State 0% 0/1 · avg 15.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 60% 3/5
O 34.5 60% 3/5
O 39.5 Today 40% 2/5
O 44.5 20% 1/5
O 49.5 20% 1/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · receivers vs New Mexico State

What New Mexico State allowed to receivers per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 185 defenses.

Rec Yds208.2#77
Receptions17.2#41
Yds/Rec12.1#134
Rec TD1.4#100

WRs vs New Mexico State · 2026

Each main WR who faced New Mexico State this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+5.2

Avg diff %+33%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 07	Maguire Anderson	19	103.2	-82%
Oct 07	Eric Nelson	3	39.7	-92%
Oct 01	Jonathan Stafford Jr.	108	44.5	+143%
Oct 01	Cameron Flowers	19	22.3	-15%
Sep 26	Troy Omeire	22	45.0	-51%
Sep 26	Bailen George	102	34.5	+196%
Sep 12	Kainoa Carvalho	82	50.3	+63%
Sep 12	Tama Uiliata	107	31.8	+236%
Aug 29	Duce Robinson	50	59.5	-16%
Aug 29	Jayvan Boggs	25	54.3	-54%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 39.5	Close
2026-10-14	7	vs Western Kentucky	5	Under	46.5
2026-10-08	6	@ Liberty	39	Under	47.5
2026-09-26	4	@ Texas Tech	24	Under	—
2026-09-19	3	vs Nicholls	44	Over	—
2026-09-12	2	vs Tulsa	62	Over	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 39.5Underdog 59.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 16m ago.