NFL Receiving Lab: Target Share, Air Yards & aDOT

Every pass-catcher with a line this week: how they’re being used, how their last 10 games went against the line, and what this week’s defense allows to their position. Matchup Cheat Sheet →

Softest vs RB NYJ #1 in rec yds allowed to RBs · 46/g Quinshon Judkins · 13.4% target share Biggest role riser Jaylen Warren Target share +8.9 pts (last 4 vs 4 before) now 13.8% Steadiest over Rhamondre Stevenson Over 15.5 in 7 of last 10 Rec Yds Red-zone magnet Braelon Allen 33% of NYJ red-zone targets (3 of 9) 0 end-zone targets this season

Player

Rec Yds line

L5 graph

L5 hit

L5 avg · vs line

Target share

Trend

Air yds share

WOPR

aDOT

Catch %

YAC/rec

RACR

Snap %

RZ share

EZ tgts

Deep %

3rd-down share

CROE

YACOE

Opp rec yds

Opp rec

Opp targets

Opp yds/tgt

Opp RZ tgts

Opp aDOT

Pos. vs close

Research flags

RJ HarveyRB DEN vs LAC

27.5FanDuel

60%3/5

40.0+12.5

-7.0%

0.27

-2.8

95%

9.7

—

46%

14%

+11.5

+0.59

#1729.6

—

#214.9

—

#230.5

#15-0.1

33%2/6

Role ▲ 6.8 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 27.5

46vs BUF14% tgt
22vs NE22% tgt
23@ KC15% tgt
41vs LA23% tgt
68@ SF26% tgt

Target share: 21.5%
Targets / game: 6.8
WOPR: 0.27
aDOT: -2.8
Catch %: 95%
Snap %: 46%
RZ share: 17%
CROE: +11.5

Over 27.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season67%2/3
vs LAC0%0/2

RBs vs LAC this season · against their closing line

33% went over (2 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	George Holani SEA	10.5	2	-81%
10-04	Emanuel Wilson SEA	6.5	39	+500%
09-27	James Cook BUF	11.5	0	-100%
09-20	Ashton Jeanty LV	26.5	15	-43%
09-13	Tyler Allgeier ARI	2.5	9	+260%
09-13	Jeremiyah Love ARI	15.5	9	-42%

Bijan RobinsonRB ATL vs BAL

26.5DraftKings

20%1/5

26.0-0.5

-10.5%

0.24

-1.8

78%

10.6

—

65%

15%

-4.4

+1.96

#1035.6

—

#27.2

—

#290.2

#30-1.6

17%1/6

Role ▼ 6.2 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 26.5

10vs NO10% tgt
90@ PIT53% tgt
9vs CAR13% tgt
19@ GB9% tgt
2@ NO10% tgt

Target share: 21.1%
Targets / game: 4.5
WOPR: 0.24
aDOT: -1.8
Catch %: 78%
Snap %: 65%
RZ share: 20%
CROE: -4.4

Over 26.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season25%1/4
vs BALNo games

RBs vs BAL this season · against their closing line

17% went over (1 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyjae Spears TEN	12.5	-1	-108%
10-04	Tony Pollard TEN	8.5	2	-76%
09-27	Javonte Williams DAL	14.5	5	-66%
09-20	Travis Etienne NO	11.5	6	-48%
09-20	Alvin Kamara NO	12.5	7	-44%
09-13	Jonathan Taylor IND	18.5	23	+24%

Christian McCaffreyRB SF vs SEA

35.5FanDuel

60%3/5

32.2-3.3

5.2%

0.33

2.5

73%

5.8

2.22

66%

25%

-6.1

-0.11

#638.3

—

#17.4

—

#250.5

#20-0.6

71%5/7

Role ▼ 3.5 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 35.5

39@ SEA22% tgt
20@ LA24% tgt
43vs MIA19% tgt
41vs ARI19% tgt
18vs DEN17% tgt

Target share: 19.8%
Targets / game: 5.5
WOPR: 0.33
aDOT: 2.5
Catch %: 73%
Snap %: 66%
RZ share: 14%
CROE: -6.1

Over 35.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1560%9/15
This season50%2/4
vs SEA50%2/4

RBs vs SEA this season · against their closing line

71% went over (5 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Omarion Hampton LAC	5.5	8	+45%
10-04	Keaton Mitchell LAC	10.5	24	+129%
09-27	Rachaad White WAS	15.5	6	-61%
09-27	Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS	0.5	7	+1300%
09-20	Tyler Allgeier ARI	7.5	9	+20%
09-20	Jeremiyah Love ARI	17.5	16	-9%
09-09	Rhamondre Stevenson NE	24.5	44	+80%

Jahmyr GibbsRB DET vs ARI

37.5FanDuel

40%2/5

44.0+6.5

3.7%

0.30

2.0

79%

6.3

3.34

78%

14%

+1.0

+0.23

#1134.9

—

#155.3

—

#31.3

#13.9

25%2/8

—

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 37.5

33@ CHI14% tgt
30vs NO13% tgt
61@ BUF21% tgt
65vs NYJ26% tgt
31@ CAR14% tgt

Target share: 18.4%
Targets / game: 7.0
WOPR: 0.30
aDOT: 2.0
Catch %: 79%
Snap %: 78%
RZ share: 18%
CROE: +1.0

Over 37.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season50%2/4
vs ARI0%0/1

RBs vs ARI this season · against their closing line

25% went over (2 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Najee Harris NYG	2.5	0	-100%
10-04	Cam Skattebo NYG	18.5	8	-57%
09-27	Kyle Juszczyk SF	8.5	0	-100%
09-27	Christian McCaffrey SF	38.5	41	+6%
09-20	Jadarian Price SEA	7.5	8	+7%
09-20	George Holani SEA	8.5	2	-76%
09-13	Omarion Hampton LAC	13.5	0	-100%
09-13	Keaton Mitchell LAC	7.5	0	-100%

Ashton JeantyRB LV vs NE

—

3.9%

0.30

1.8

79%

7.2

3.84

76%

15%

+3.5

+0.94

#2227.4

—

#205.1

—

#170.5

#22-0.7

50%5/10

Role ▲ 3.0 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards

7vs KC19% tgt
45vs MIA21% tgt
15@ LAC24% tgt
37@ NO10% tgt
68vs KC17% tgt

Target share: 17.9%
Targets / game: 6.0
WOPR: 0.30
aDOT: 1.8
Catch %: 79%
Snap %: 76%
RZ share: 30%
CROE: +3.5

RBs vs NE this season · against their closing line

50% went over (5 of 10)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Ty Johnson BUF	11.5	9	-22%
10-04	James Cook BUF	7.5	8	+7%
09-27	LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX	0.5	9	+1700%
09-27	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
09-27	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	10.5	17	+62%
09-20	Rico Dowdle PIT	14.5	22	+52%
09-20	Jaylen Warren PIT	18.5	34	+84%
09-09	Jadarian Price SEA	7.5	6	-20%

Chase BrownRB CIN vs MIA

19.5PrizePicks

40%2/5

24.2+4.7

-3.2%

0.20

-0.8

88%

5.5

—

73%

14%

+9.2

-2.17

#836.8

—

#105.7

—

#13.0

#32.0

80%4/5

—

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 19.5

18vs CLE16% tgt
22vs TB18% tgt
2@ HOU16% tgt
8@ PIT5% tgt
71vs JAX21% tgt

Target share: 15.0%
Targets / game: 6.0
WOPR: 0.20
aDOT: -0.8
Catch %: 88%
Snap %: 73%
RZ share: 6%
CROE: +9.2

Over 19.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1567%10/15
This season50%2/4
vs MIA100%1/1

RBs vs MIA this season · against their closing line

80% went over (4 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Aaron Jones MIN	19.5	34	+74%
09-27	Kenneth Walker III KC	22.5	3	-87%
09-20	Kyle Juszczyk SF	8.5	27	+218%
09-20	Christian McCaffrey SF	39.5	43	+9%
09-13	Ashton Jeanty LV	17.5	45	+157%

Jaylen WarrenRB PIT vs IND

17.5DraftKings

80%4/5

29.4+11.9

-1.5%

0.20

-0.8

65%

13.2

—

74%

-13.9

+4.61

#2624.9

—

#244.8

—

#100.8

#110.7

57%4/7

Role ▲ 8.9 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 17.5

4vs HOU3% tgt
27vs ATL16% tgt
34@ NE11% tgt
49vs CIN13% tgt
33@ CLE15% tgt

Target share: 13.8%
Targets / game: 5.0
WOPR: 0.20
aDOT: -0.8
Catch %: 65%
Snap %: 74%
RZ share: 25%
CROE: -13.9

Over 17.5 by window

Last 580%4/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season100%4/4
vs IND0%0/1

RBs vs IND this season · against their closing line

57% went over (4 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kaytron Allen WAS	9.5	0	-100%
10-04	Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS	5.5	35	+536%
09-27	Woody Marks HOU	11.5	6	-48%
09-27	David Montgomery HOU	9.5	15	+58%
09-20	Kenneth Walker III KC	20.5	61	+198%
09-13	Justice Hill BAL	11.5	10	-13%
09-13	Derrick Henry BAL	7.5	19	+153%

Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE vs NYJ

15.5DraftKings

80%4/5

25.0+9.5

-4.1%

0.17

-1.8

94%

8.1

—

62%

+11.5

+0.36

#146.5

—

#125.6

—

#61.2

#140.1

50%4/8

Soft matchup #1

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 15.5

29vs BUF22% tgt
17@ JAX9% tgt
27@ TB17% tgt
9vs CAR7% tgt
43vs PIT21% tgt

Target share: 13.4%
Targets / game: 4.0
WOPR: 0.17
aDOT: -1.8
Catch %: 94%
Snap %: 62%
RZ share: 23%
CROE: +11.5

Over 15.5 by window

Last 580%4/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season75%3/4
vs NYJ0%0/1

RBs vs NYJ this season · against their closing line

50% went over (4 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kyle Monangai CHI	5.5	4	-27%
10-04	D'Andre Swift CHI	14.5	16	+10%
09-27	Sione Vaki DET	2.5	11	+340%
09-27	Jahmyr Gibbs DET	34.5	65	+88%
09-20	MarShawn Lloyd GB	6.5	6	-8%
09-20	Chris Brooks GB	9.5	15	+58%
09-13	Tyjae Spears TEN	16.5	12	-27%
09-13	Tony Pollard TEN	9.5	-1	-111%

Rhamondre StevensonRB NE vs LV

15.5FanDuel

80%4/5

26.0+10.5

-0.6%

0.19

-0.4

75%

8.3

—

60%

12%

-4.9

+0.46

#2724.7

—

#195.2

—

#320.0

#24-1.1

67%4/6

Over in 7 of last 10

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 15.5

40vs SEA12% tgt
44@ SEA19% tgt
3vs PIT10% tgt
16@ JAX10% tgt
27@ BUF14% tgt

Target share: 13.2%
Targets / game: 4.0
WOPR: 0.19
aDOT: -0.4
Catch %: 75%
Snap %: 60%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -4.9

Over 15.5 by window

Last 580%4/5
Last 1070%7/10
Last 1567%10/15
This season75%3/4
vs LV0%0/1

RBs vs LV this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kenneth Walker III KC	22.5	2	-91%
09-27	Travis Etienne NO	10.5	13	+24%
09-27	Alvin Kamara NO	13.5	5	-63%
09-20	Omarion Hampton LAC	11.5	21	+83%
09-20	Keaton Mitchell LAC	8.5	15	+76%
09-13	De'Von Achane MIA	27.5	30	+9%

Aaron Jones Sr.RB MIN vs NO

18.5FanDuel

40%2/5

15.6-2.9

0.3%

0.20

-0.1

60%

8.0

—

70%

12%

-17.6

+0.68

#2824.1

—

#314.1

—

#180.5

#27-1.2

40%2/5

Tough matchup #28

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 18.5

10vs DET29% tgt
0vs GB4% tgt
0@ CHI0% tgt
34@ TB24% tgt
34vs MIA24% tgt

Target share: 13.1%
Targets / game: 3.8
WOPR: 0.20
aDOT: -0.1
Catch %: 60%
Snap %: 70%
RZ share: 20%
CROE: -17.6

Over 18.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season50%2/4
vs NONo games

RBs vs NO this season · against their closing line

40% went over (2 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-05	Bijan Robinson ATL	36.5	2	-95%
09-27	Ashton Jeanty LV	22.5	37	+64%
09-20	Justice Hill BAL	13.5	12	-11%
09-20	Derrick Henry BAL	6.5	19	+192%
09-13	Jahmyr Gibbs DET	30.5	30	-2%

Jonathan TaylorRB IND vs PIT

15.5DraftKings

40%2/5

16.4+0.9

-3.7%

0.16

-1.7

67%

7.9

—

85%

-13.9

-0.01

#1334.3

—

#86.3

—

#210.5

#31-1.7

29%2/7

—

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 15.5

13@ HOU6% tgt
23vs BAL14% tgt
40@ KC13% tgt
4vs HOU9% tgt
2@ WAS14% tgt

Target share: 12.4%
Targets / game: 3.8
WOPR: 0.16
aDOT: -1.7
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 85%
RZ share: 7%
CROE: -13.9

Over 15.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season50%2/4
vs PIT50%1/2

RBs vs PIT this season · against their closing line

29% went over (2 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-01	Raheim Sanders CLE	11.5	7	-39%
10-01	Quinshon Judkins CLE	10.5	43	+310%
09-27	Samaje Perine CIN	8.5	5	-41%
09-27	Chase Brown CIN	21.5	8	-63%
09-20	TreVeyon Henderson NE	10.5	0	-100%
09-20	Rhamondre Stevenson NE	19.5	3	-85%
09-13	Bijan Robinson ATL	33.5	90	+169%

Ty JohnsonRB BUF vs LAR

11.5DraftKings

60%3/5

22.4+10.9

-0.2%

0.15

0.0

100%

9.8

—

32%

12%

+26.7

+2.54

#241.8

—

#56.7

—

#110.8

#23-0.9

38%3/8

Over in 8 of last 10Soft matchup #2

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 11.5

0@ CLE0% tgt
33vs PHI12% tgt
20vs NYJ7% tgt
50vs LAC15% tgt
9vs NE7% tgt

Target share: 10.3%
Targets / game: 3.0
WOPR: 0.15
aDOT: 0.0
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 32%
RZ share: 12%
CROE: +26.7

Over 11.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1080%8/10
Last 1567%10/15
This season50%1/2
vs LAR100%1/1

RBs vs LAR this season · against their closing line

38% went over (3 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Will Shipley PHI	3.5	0	-100%
10-04	Tank Bigsby PHI	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	Saquon Barkley PHI	15.5	2	-87%
09-27	RJ Harvey DEN	16.5	41	+148%
09-27	J.K. Dobbins DEN	1.5	4	+167%
09-21	Devin Singletary NYG	7.5	0	-100%
09-21	Cam Skattebo NYG	11.5	19	+65%
09-10	Christian McCaffrey SF	40.5	20	-51%

Alvin KamaraRB NO vs MIN

13.5FanDuel

40%2/5

16.6+3.1

-0.8%

0.15

0.4

79%

5.2

9.40

28%

+0.7

-2.50

#3218.9

—

#323.9

—

#21.5

#100.8

38%3/8

Tough matchup #32

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 13.5

32@ CAR12% tgt
4vs ATL5% tgt
7@ BAL19% tgt
5vs LV2% tgt
35vs ATL15% tgt

Target share: 10.2%
Targets / game: 4.0
WOPR: 0.15
aDOT: 0.4
Catch %: 79%
Snap %: 28%
RZ share: 6%
CROE: +0.7

Over 13.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season33%1/3
vs MINNo games

RBs vs MIN this season · against their closing line

38% went over (3 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Ollie Gordon II MIA	7.5	0	-100%
10-04	Jaylen Wright MIA	5.5	0	-100%
09-27	Kenny Gainwell TB	9.5	14	+47%
09-27	Bucky Irving TB	15.5	12	-23%
09-20	Kyle Monangai CHI	9.5	11	+16%
09-20	D'Andre Swift CHI	10.5	54	+414%
09-13	MarShawn Lloyd GB	10.5	0	-100%
09-13	Chris Brooks GB	5.5	0	-100%

Raheim SandersRB CLE vs NYJ

12.5FanDuel

40%2/5

16.0+3.5

-2.0%

0.13

-1.5

91%

8.8

—

33%

21%

+8.5

+0.37

#146.5

—

#125.6

—

#61.2

#140.1

50%4/8

Under in 6 of last 8Role ▲ 5.6 ptsSoft matchup #1

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 12.5

7@ CIN5% tgt
25@ JAX14% tgt
7@ TB3% tgt
34vs CAR17% tgt
7vs PIT6% tgt

Target share: 9.9%
Targets / game: 2.8
WOPR: 0.13
aDOT: -1.5
Catch %: 91%
Snap %: 33%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: +8.5

Over 12.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1025%2/8
Last 1525%2/8
This season50%2/4
vs NYJNo games

RBs vs NYJ this season · against their closing line

50% went over (4 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kyle Monangai CHI	5.5	4	-27%
10-04	D'Andre Swift CHI	14.5	16	+10%
09-27	Sione Vaki DET	2.5	11	+340%
09-27	Jahmyr Gibbs DET	34.5	65	+88%
09-20	MarShawn Lloyd GB	6.5	6	-8%
09-20	Chris Brooks GB	9.5	15	+58%
09-13	Tyjae Spears TEN	16.5	12	-27%
09-13	Tony Pollard TEN	9.5	-1	-111%

Tony PollardRB TEN vs HOU

8.5DraftKings

40%2/5

8.2-0.3

1.8%

0.16

1.5

73%

5.0

1.50

53%

-3.0

-3.30

#2526.5

—

#145.5

—

#200.5

#26-1.1

40%2/5

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▲ 4.1 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 8.5

17@ JAX9% tgt
-1vs NYJ7% tgt
1vs PHI6% tgt
22@ NYG11% tgt
2@ BAL14% tgt

Target share: 9.7%
Targets / game: 2.8
WOPR: 0.16
aDOT: 1.5
Catch %: 73%
Snap %: 53%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -3.0

Over 8.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season25%1/4
vs HOU50%2/4

RBs vs HOU this season · against their closing line

40% went over (2 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Javonte Williams DAL	13.5	21	+56%
09-27	Jonathan Taylor IND	21.5	4	-81%
09-20	Samaje Perine CIN	7.5	16	+113%
09-20	Chase Brown CIN	19.5	2	-90%
09-13	James Cook BUF	19.5	12	-38%

Rachaad WhiteRB WAS vs NYG

9.5DraftKings

40%2/5

15.2+5.7

-0.7%

0.13

0.4

100%

5.2

12.75

42%

19%

+24.2

-1.52

#2326.6

—

#234.8

—

#120.8

#29-1.5

43%3/7

Role ▲ 3.5 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 9.5

7@ MIA4% tgt
18vs CAR9% tgt
5@ PHI7% tgt
40@ DAL18% tgt
6vs SEA3% tgt

Target share: 9.2%
Targets / game: 2.8
WOPR: 0.13
aDOT: 0.4
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 42%
RZ share: 15%
CROE: +24.2

Over 9.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season33%1/3
vs NYG100%1/1

RBs vs NYG this season · against their closing line

43% went over (3 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Allgeier ARI	8.5	7	-18%
10-04	Jeremiyah Love ARI	17.5	-8	-146%
09-27	Tyjae Spears TEN	12.5	0	-100%
09-27	Tony Pollard TEN	6.5	22	+238%
09-21	Kyren Williams LA	16.5	12	-27%
09-21	Blake Corum LA	2.5	13	+420%
09-13	Javonte Williams DAL	10.5	31	+195%

James Cook IIIRB BUF vs LAR

11.5DraftKings

40%2/5

9.6-1.9

-0.6%

0.13

-0.8

60%

4.5

—

68%

-16.1

-2.73

#241.8

—

#56.7

—

#110.8

#23-0.9

38%3/8

Under in 7 of last 10Soft matchup #2

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 11.5

24@ DEN8% tgt
12@ HOU14% tgt
4vs DET11% tgt
0vs LAC4% tgt
8vs NE7% tgt

Target share: 8.9%
Targets / game: 2.5
WOPR: 0.13
aDOT: -0.8
Catch %: 60%
Snap %: 68%
RZ share: 12%
CROE: -16.1

Over 11.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season25%1/4
vs LAR0%0/1

RBs vs LAR this season · against their closing line

38% went over (3 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Will Shipley PHI	3.5	0	-100%
10-04	Tank Bigsby PHI	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	Saquon Barkley PHI	15.5	2	-87%
09-27	RJ Harvey DEN	16.5	41	+148%
09-27	J.K. Dobbins DEN	1.5	4	+167%
09-21	Devin Singletary NYG	7.5	0	-100%
09-21	Cam Skattebo NYG	11.5	19	+65%
09-10	Christian McCaffrey SF	40.5	20	-51%

Jeremiyah LoveRB ARI vs DET

11.5DraftKings

50%2/4

9.0-2.5

0.4%

0.13

0.5

85%

2.7

5.14

48%

+6.8

-3.26

#3121.8

—

#254.7

—

#91.0

#130.3

67%4/6

Tough matchup #31

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 11.5

9@ LAC11% tgt
16vs SEA12% tgt
19@ SF10% tgt
-8@ NYG3% tgt

Target share: 8.8%
Targets / game: 3.2
WOPR: 0.13
aDOT: 0.5
Catch %: 85%
Snap %: 48%
RZ share: 11%
CROE: +6.8

Over 11.5 by window

Last 550%2/4
Last 1050%2/4
Last 1550%2/4
This season50%2/4
vs DETNo games

RBs vs DET this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Chuba Hubbard CAR	18.5	7	-62%
10-04	AJ Dillon CAR	0.5	5	+900%
09-27	Breece Hall NYJ	21.5	23	+7%
09-27	Braelon Allen NYJ	2.5	3	+20%
09-17	James Cook BUF	18.5	4	-78%
09-13	Travis Etienne NO	16.5	32	+94%

Cam SkatteboRB NYG vs WAS

12.5FanDuel

60%3/5

17.0+4.5

6.1%

0.17

3.6

89%

4.9

2.09

65%

11%

+14.4

-2.33

#2426.6

—

#165.3

—

#300.2

#120.7

25%2/8

Role ▼ 4.5 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 12.5

18@ PHI9% tgt
0vs DAL0% tgt
19@ LA12% tgt
40vs TEN19% tgt
8vs ARI3% tgt

Target share: 8.7%
Targets / game: 2.2
WOPR: 0.17
aDOT: 3.6
Catch %: 89%
Snap %: 65%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: +14.4

Over 12.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1558%7/12
This season50%2/4
vs WAS0%0/1

RBs vs WAS this season · against their closing line

25% went over (2 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Jonathan Taylor IND	19.5	2	-90%
09-27	Jadarian Price SEA	8.5	7	-18%
09-27	George Holani SEA	5.5	48	+773%
09-27	Emanuel Wilson SEA	0.5	0	-100%
09-20	Javonte Williams DAL	13.5	20	+48%
09-20	Hunter Luepke DAL	24.5	0	-100%
09-13	Tank Bigsby PHI	0.5	0	-100%
09-13	Saquon Barkley PHI	15.5	-3	-119%

Keaton MitchellRB LAC vs DEN

14.5Underdog

40%2/5

6.8-7.7

-1.4%

0.11

-1.5

90%

4.9

—

33%

10%

+5.7

-2.26

#2028.6

—

#135.6

—

#71.0

#41.8

29%2/7

Under in 8 of last 10Role ▲ 3.5 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 14.5

0@ PIT0% tgt
0vs ARI0% tgt
15vs LV4% tgt
-5@ BUF9% tgt
24@ SEA19% tgt

Target share: 8.1%
Targets / game: 2.5
WOPR: 0.11
aDOT: -1.5
Catch %: 90%
Snap %: 33%
RZ share: 10%
CROE: +5.7

Over 14.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1520%3/15
This season50%2/4
vs DENNo games

RBs vs DEN this season · against their closing line

29% went over (2 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kyle Juszczyk SF	8.5	28	+229%
10-04	Christian McCaffrey SF	41.5	18	-57%
09-27	Kyren Williams LA	12.5	70	+460%
09-27	Blake Corum LA	0.5	0	-100%
09-20	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
09-20	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	8.5	-3	-135%
09-14	Kenneth Walker III KC	21.5	18	-16%

Tyjae SpearsRB TEN vs HOU

9.5FanDuel

40%2/5

9.8+0.3

-1.7%

0.10

-2.0

71%

10.6

—

42%

10%

-7.7

+1.32

#2526.5

—

#145.5

—

#200.5

#26-1.1

40%2/5

Role ▼ 5.8 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 9.5

9@ JAX21% tgt
12vs NYJ14% tgt
29vs PHI12% tgt
0@ NYG0% tgt
-1@ BAL4% tgt

Target share: 7.4%
Targets / game: 1.8
WOPR: 0.10
aDOT: -2.0
Catch %: 71%
Snap %: 42%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -7.7

Over 9.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1567%10/15
This season50%2/4
vs HOU100%1/1

RBs vs HOU this season · against their closing line

40% went over (2 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Javonte Williams DAL	13.5	21	+56%
09-27	Jonathan Taylor IND	21.5	4	-81%
09-20	Samaje Perine CIN	7.5	16	+113%
09-20	Chase Brown CIN	19.5	2	-90%
09-13	James Cook BUF	19.5	12	-38%

Braelon AllenRB NYJ vs CLE

13.5DraftKings

0%0/5

3.8-9.7

-0.1%

0.11

-0.3

86%

3.5

—

54%

+8.1

-3.34

#2923.8

—

#185.2

—

#81.0

#32-3.0

38%3/8

Under in 9 of last 10Role ▲ 4.6 ptsTough matchup #29

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 13.5

0@ MIA0% tgt
0@ TEN4% tgt
8vs GB3% tgt
3@ DET8% tgt
8@ CHI13% tgt

Target share: 7.2%
Targets / game: 1.8
WOPR: 0.11
aDOT: -0.3
Catch %: 86%
Snap %: 54%
RZ share: 33%
CROE: +8.1

Over 13.5 by window

Last 50%0/5
Last 1010%1/10
Last 1520%3/15
This season0%0/4
vs CLENo games

RBs vs CLE this season · against their closing line

38% went over (3 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-01	Travis Homer PIT	9.5	0	-100%
10-01	Jaylen Warren PIT	25.5	33	+29%
09-27	Chuba Hubbard CAR	14.5	28	+93%
09-27	AJ Dillon CAR	0.5	-2	-500%
09-20	Kenny Gainwell TB	12.5	5	-60%
09-20	Bucky Irving TB	17.5	1	-94%
09-13	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
09-13	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	11.5	22	+91%

Bhayshul TutenRB JAX vs PHI

9.5DraftKings

60%3/5

10.8+1.3

-2.5%

0.09

-3.1

100%

10.9

—

52%

+18.1

+2.14

#539.0

—

#76.3

—

#220.5

#81.1

33%2/6

Role ▲ 6.1 ptsSoft matchup #5

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 9.5

0vs BUF0% tgt
22vs CLE5% tgt
-3@ DEN7% tgt
17vs NE7% tgt
18@ CIN9% tgt

Target share: 7.0%
Targets / game: 1.8
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: -3.1
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 52%
RZ share: 6%
CROE: +18.1

Over 9.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1533%5/15
This season75%3/4
vs PHINo games

RBs vs PHI this season · against their closing line

33% went over (2 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kyren Williams LA	13.5	67	+396%
09-28	Kyle Monangai CHI	8.5	0	-100%
09-28	D'Andre Swift CHI	13.5	4	-70%
09-20	Tyjae Spears TEN	15.5	29	+87%
09-20	Tony Pollard TEN	7.5	1	-87%
09-13	Rachaad White WAS	14.5	5	-66%

Tyler AllgeierRB ARI vs DET

9.5FanDuel

20%1/5

7.6-1.9

-3.5%

0.08

-3.6

100%

7.1

—

54%

11%

+23.8

-2.14

#3121.8

—

#254.7

—

#91.0

#130.3

67%4/6

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▲ 4.3 ptsTough matchup #31

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 9.5

3vs NO7% tgt
9@ LAC5% tgt
9vs SEA8% tgt
10@ SF8% tgt
7@ NYG6% tgt

Target share: 6.7%
Targets / game: 2.5
WOPR: 0.08
aDOT: -3.6
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 54%
RZ share: 7%
CROE: +23.8

Over 9.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1527%4/15
This season25%1/4
vs DETNo games

RBs vs DET this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Chuba Hubbard CAR	18.5	7	-62%
10-04	AJ Dillon CAR	0.5	5	+900%
09-27	Breece Hall NYJ	21.5	23	+7%
09-27	Braelon Allen NYJ	2.5	3	+20%
09-17	James Cook BUF	18.5	4	-78%
09-13	Travis Etienne NO	16.5	32	+94%

Derrick HenryRB BAL vs ATL

4.5FanDuel

60%3/5

8.8+4.3

-3.1%

0.08

-4.3

100%

10.6

—

59%

+24.8

+0.39

#3023.5

—

#115.7

—

#41.2

#17-0.2

56%5/9

Role ▲ 5.1 ptsTough matchup #30

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 4.5

0@ PIT6% tgt
19@ IND4% tgt
19vs NO10% tgt
0@ DAL5% tgt
6vs TEN7% tgt

Target share: 6.6%
Targets / game: 1.8
WOPR: 0.08
aDOT: -4.3
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 59%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: +24.8

Over 4.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season75%3/4
vs ATLNo games

RBs vs ATL this season · against their closing line

56% went over (5 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-05	Kendre Miller NO	5.5	10	+82%
10-05	Alvin Kamara NO	15.5	35	+126%
09-24	MarShawn Lloyd GB	5.5	7	+27%
09-24	Kaleb Johnson GB	0.5	10	+1900%
09-24	Chris Brooks GB	6.5	4	-38%
09-20	Jonathon Brooks CAR	6.5	-5	-177%
09-20	Chuba Hubbard CAR	12.5	11	-12%
09-13	Rico Dowdle PIT	10.5	6	-43%

Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA vs CIN

9.5DraftKings

20%1/5

3.2-6.3

-3.6%

0.07

-3.2

100%

6.0

—

49%

+20.2

-3.31

#738.3

—

#175.3

—

#130.8

#21-0.6

71%5/7

Under in 9 of last 10Role ▲ 6.1 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 9.5

0vs TB0% tgt
2@ NE4% tgt
0@ SF0% tgt
14vs KC9% tgt
0@ MIN12% tgt

Target share: 6.1%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.07
aDOT: -3.2
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 49%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: +20.2

Over 9.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1010%1/10
Last 1513%2/15
This season33%1/3
vs CIN0%0/1

RBs vs CIN this season · against their closing line

71% went over (5 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	10.5	18	+71%
09-27	Travis Homer PIT	5.5	0	-100%
09-27	Jaylen Warren PIT	25.5	49	+92%
09-20	Woody Marks HOU	10.5	27	+157%
09-20	David Montgomery HOU	11.5	14	+22%
09-13	Bucky Irving TB	13.5	48	+256%

Emanuel WilsonRB SEA vs SF

10.5BetMGM

20%1/5

7.8-2.7

-2.1%

0.07

-2.6

60%

18.0

—

36%

-19.5

+7.18

#340.7

—

#47.0

—

#140.8

#71.1

75%6/8

Under in 9 of last 10Soft matchup #3

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 10.5

0@ CHI0% tgt
0vs NE0% tgt
0@ ARI4% tgt
0@ WAS0% tgt
39vs LAC20% tgt

Target share: 6.0%
Targets / game: 1.2
WOPR: 0.07
aDOT: -2.6
Catch %: 60%
Snap %: 36%
RZ share: 11%
CROE: -19.5

Over 10.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1010%1/10
Last 1513%2/15
This season25%1/4
vs SF0%0/1

RBs vs SF this season · against their closing line

75% went over (6 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Badie DEN	3.5	32	+814%
10-04	RJ Harvey DEN	21.5	68	+216%
10-04	J.K. Dobbins DEN	2.5	12	+380%
09-27	Tyler Allgeier ARI	7.5	10	+33%
09-27	Jeremiyah Love ARI	14.5	19	+31%
09-20	De'Von Achane MIA	27.5	19	-31%
09-10	Kyren Williams LA	10.5	24	+129%
09-10	Blake Corum LA	2.5	0	-100%

George HolaniRB SEA vs SF

9.5DraftKings

20%1/5

11.8+2.3

-0.0%

0.09

-0.8

88%

9.1

—

36%

+8.9

+1.05

#340.7

—

#47.0

—

#140.8

#71.1

75%6/8

Under in 8 of last 10Soft matchup #3

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 9.5

7@ NE3% tgt
0vs NE4% tgt
2@ ARI4% tgt
48@ WAS11% tgt
2vs LAC5% tgt

Target share: 6.0%
Targets / game: 2.0
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: -0.8
Catch %: 88%
Snap %: 36%
RZ share: 5%
CROE: +8.9

Over 9.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1520%3/15
This season25%1/4
vs SF0%0/1

RBs vs SF this season · against their closing line

75% went over (6 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Badie DEN	3.5	32	+814%
10-04	RJ Harvey DEN	21.5	68	+216%
10-04	J.K. Dobbins DEN	2.5	12	+380%
09-27	Tyler Allgeier ARI	7.5	10	+33%
09-27	Jeremiyah Love ARI	14.5	19	+31%
09-20	De'Von Achane MIA	27.5	19	-31%
09-10	Kyren Williams LA	10.5	24	+129%
09-10	Blake Corum LA	2.5	0	-100%

Will ShipleyRB PHI vs JAX

15.5FanDuel

0%0/5

6.0-9.5

1.9%

0.10

2.2

67%

3.8

1.85

36%

-8.5

-1.98

#1234.7

—

#66.5

—

#280.2

#16-0.1

43%3/7

Under in 10 of last 10

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 15.5

6vs SF3% tgt
8vs WAS4% tgt
5@ TEN6% tgt
11@ CHI8% tgt
0vs LA4% tgt

Target share: 5.6%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.10
aDOT: 2.2
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 36%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -8.5

Over 15.5 by window

Last 50%0/5
Last 100%0/10
Last 157%1/15
This season0%0/4
vs JAX0%0/1

RBs vs JAX this season · against their closing line

43% went over (3 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Samaje Perine CIN	8.5	0	-100%
10-04	Chase Brown CIN	19.5	71	+264%
09-27	TreVeyon Henderson NE	9.5	6	-37%
09-27	Rhamondre Stevenson NE	14.5	16	+10%
09-20	J.K. Dobbins DEN	7.5	0	-100%
09-13	Quinshon Judkins CLE	9.5	17	+79%
09-13	Dylan Sampson CLE	8.5	0	-100%

Woody MarksRB HOU vs TEN

8.5DraftKings

40%2/5

10.0+1.5

1.1%

0.09

2.2

78%

4.3

1.55

45%

-0.3

-2.94

#1432.8

—

#294.4

—

#270.2

#90.9

50%5/10

Under in 8 of last 10

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 8.5

19@ NE7% tgt
-2vs BUF3% tgt
27vs CIN12% tgt
6@ IND4% tgt
0vs DAL4% tgt

Target share: 5.6%
Targets / game: 2.2
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: 2.2
Catch %: 78%
Snap %: 45%
RZ share: 14%
CROE: -0.3

Over 8.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1520%3/15
This season25%1/4
vs TEN50%1/2

RBs vs TEN this season · against their closing line

50% went over (5 of 10)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Justice Hill BAL	10.5	22	+110%
10-04	Derrick Henry BAL	7.5	6	-20%
09-27	Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG	24.5	0	-100%
09-27	Najee Harris NYG	0.5	0	-100%
09-27	Cam Skattebo NYG	14.5	40	+176%
09-20	Will Shipley PHI	2.5	5	+100%
09-20	Tank Bigsby PHI	0.5	5	+900%
09-20	Saquon Barkley PHI	10.5	11	+5%

Samaje PerineRB CIN vs MIA

6.5PrizePicks

60%3/5

12.2+5.7

1.9%

0.10

2.0

62%

7.8

3.19

34%

14%

-4.9

+2.16

#836.8

—

#105.7

—

#13.0

#32.0

80%4/5

Over in 7 of last 10

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 6.5

10vs CLE10% tgt
30vs TB9% tgt
16@ HOU3% tgt
5@ PIT8% tgt
0vs JAX2% tgt

Target share: 5.5%
Targets / game: 2.0
WOPR: 0.10
aDOT: 2.0
Catch %: 62%
Snap %: 34%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -4.9

Over 6.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1070%7/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season50%2/4
vs MIA100%1/1

RBs vs MIA this season · against their closing line

80% went over (4 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Aaron Jones MIN	19.5	34	+74%
09-27	Kenneth Walker III KC	22.5	3	-87%
09-20	Kyle Juszczyk SF	8.5	27	+218%
09-20	Christian McCaffrey SF	39.5	43	+9%
09-13	Ashton Jeanty LV	17.5	45	+157%

Justice HillRB BAL vs ATL

8.5DraftKings

60%3/5

8.8+0.3

-1.4%

0.07

-2.5

83%

13.0

—

41%

10%

+1.2

+1.96

#3023.5

—

#115.7

—

#41.2

#17-0.2

56%5/9

Over in 7 of last 10Tough matchup #30

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 8.5

0vs NYJ0% tgt
10@ IND4% tgt
12vs NO7% tgt
0@ DAL0% tgt
22vs TEN10% tgt

Target share: 5.4%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.07
aDOT: -2.5
Catch %: 83%
Snap %: 41%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: +1.2

Over 8.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1070%7/10
Last 1567%10/15
This season75%3/4
vs ATLNo games

RBs vs ATL this season · against their closing line

56% went over (5 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-05	Kendre Miller NO	5.5	10	+82%
10-05	Alvin Kamara NO	15.5	35	+126%
09-24	MarShawn Lloyd GB	5.5	7	+27%
09-24	Kaleb Johnson GB	0.5	10	+1900%
09-24	Chris Brooks GB	6.5	4	-38%
09-20	Jonathon Brooks CAR	6.5	-5	-177%
09-20	Chuba Hubbard CAR	12.5	11	-12%
09-13	Rico Dowdle PIT	10.5	6	-43%

Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS vs NYG

5.5PrizePicks

40%2/5

8.0+2.5

0.3%

0.08

0.6

71%

9.4

10.00

47%

+1.1

+1.27

#2326.6

—

#234.8

—

#120.8

#29-1.5

43%3/7

Under in 8 of last 10Role ▲ 5.2 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 5.5

0@ PHI0% tgt
-7@ PHI3% tgt
5@ DAL3% tgt
7vs SEA3% tgt
35vs IND11% tgt

Target share: 5.2%
Targets / game: 1.8
WOPR: 0.08
aDOT: 0.6
Catch %: 71%
Snap %: 47%
RZ share: 7%
CROE: +1.1

Over 5.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1513%2/15
This season50%2/4
vs NYG0%0/2

RBs vs NYG this season · against their closing line

43% went over (3 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Allgeier ARI	8.5	7	-18%
10-04	Jeremiyah Love ARI	17.5	-8	-146%
09-27	Tyjae Spears TEN	12.5	0	-100%
09-27	Tony Pollard TEN	6.5	22	+238%
09-21	Kyren Williams LA	16.5	12	-27%
09-21	Blake Corum LA	2.5	13	+420%
09-13	Javonte Williams DAL	10.5	31	+195%

David MontgomeryRB HOU vs TEN

7.5DraftKings

100%5/5

16.0+8.5

1.7%

0.09

3.6

100%

6.0

2.68

55%

+22.4

-1.16

#1432.8

—

#294.4

—

#270.2

#90.9

50%5/10

Over in 8 of last 10

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 7.5

13@ CHI3% tgt
19vs BUF8% tgt
14vs CIN4% tgt
15@ IND8% tgt
19vs DAL0% tgt

Target share: 5.0%
Targets / game: 1.8
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: 3.6
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 55%
RZ share: 8%
CROE: +22.4

Over 7.5 by window

Last 5100%5/5
Last 1080%8/10
Last 1580%12/15
This season100%4/4
vs TEN0%0/1

RBs vs TEN this season · against their closing line

50% went over (5 of 10)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Justice Hill BAL	10.5	22	+110%
10-04	Derrick Henry BAL	7.5	6	-20%
09-27	Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG	24.5	0	-100%
09-27	Najee Harris NYG	0.5	0	-100%
09-27	Cam Skattebo NYG	14.5	40	+176%
09-20	Will Shipley PHI	2.5	5	+100%
09-20	Tank Bigsby PHI	0.5	5	+900%
09-20	Saquon Barkley PHI	10.5	11	+5%

Omarion HamptonRB LAC vs DEN

5.5PrizePicks

40%2/5

5.8+0.3

-1.3%

0.06

-3.0

80%

8.8

—

50%

-3.6

-0.25

#2028.6

—

#135.6

—

#71.0

#41.8

29%2/7

Role ▼ 4.9 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 5.5

0@ NE0% tgt
0vs ARI0% tgt
21vs LV8% tgt
0@ BUF3% tgt
8@ SEA6% tgt

Target share: 4.3%
Targets / game: 1.2
WOPR: 0.06
aDOT: -3.0
Catch %: 80%
Snap %: 50%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -3.6

Over 5.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1564%9/14
This season50%2/4
vs DEN100%1/1

RBs vs DEN this season · against their closing line

29% went over (2 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kyle Juszczyk SF	8.5	28	+229%
10-04	Christian McCaffrey SF	41.5	18	-57%
09-27	Kyren Williams LA	12.5	70	+460%
09-27	Blake Corum LA	0.5	0	-100%
09-20	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
09-20	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	8.5	-3	-135%
09-14	Kenneth Walker III KC	21.5	18	-16%

TreVeyon HendersonRB NE vs LV

8.5Underdog

20%1/5

6.4-2.1

-0.4%

0.06

0.0

33%

2.0

—

43%

-51.6

-2.62

#2724.7

—

#195.2

—

#320.0

#24-1.1

67%4/6

Under in 7 of last 10

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 8.5

0@ DEN0% tgt
26vs SEA7% tgt
0vs PIT0% tgt
6@ JAX3% tgt
0@ BUF6% tgt

Target share: 4.1%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.06
aDOT: 0.0
Catch %: 33%
Snap %: 43%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -51.6

Over 8.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season0%0/3
vs LV100%1/1

RBs vs LV this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kenneth Walker III KC	22.5	2	-91%
09-27	Travis Etienne NO	10.5	13	+24%
09-27	Alvin Kamara NO	13.5	5	-63%
09-20	Omarion Hampton LAC	11.5	21	+83%
09-20	Keaton Mitchell LAC	8.5	15	+76%
09-13	De'Von Achane MIA	27.5	30	+9%

Kendre MillerRB NO vs MIN

4.5PrizePicks

60%3/5

5.2+0.7

-0.1%

0.05

0.2

67%

2.5

15.00

20%

-14.2

-3.41

#3218.9

—

#323.9

—

#21.5

#100.8

38%3/8

Tough matchup #32

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 4.5

11vs NE4% tgt
0@ CHI0% tgt
0@ DET0% tgt
5vs LV8% tgt
10vs ATL6% tgt

Target share: 3.5%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.05
aDOT: 0.2
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 20%
RZ share: 7%
CROE: -14.2

Over 4.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season67%2/3
vs MINNo games

RBs vs MIN this season · against their closing line

38% went over (3 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Ollie Gordon II MIA	7.5	0	-100%
10-04	Jaylen Wright MIA	5.5	0	-100%
09-27	Kenny Gainwell TB	9.5	14	+47%
09-27	Bucky Irving TB	15.5	12	-23%
09-20	Kyle Monangai CHI	9.5	11	+16%
09-20	D'Andre Swift CHI	10.5	54	+414%
09-13	MarShawn Lloyd GB	10.5	0	-100%
09-13	Chris Brooks GB	5.5	0	-100%

Brian RobinsonRB ATL vs BAL

—

-0.8%

0.04

-1.3

100%

8.3

—

36%

17%

+15.3

+0.90

#1035.6

—

#27.2

—

#290.2

#30-1.6

17%1/6

—

Last 5 games · receiving yards

3@ SEA4% tgt
0@ PIT0% tgt
16vs CAR6% tgt
0@ GB0% tgt
5@ NO5% tgt

Target share: 2.9%
Targets / game: 0.8
WOPR: 0.04
aDOT: -1.3
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 36%
RZ share: 25%
CROE: +15.3

RBs vs BAL this season · against their closing line

17% went over (1 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyjae Spears TEN	12.5	-1	-108%
10-04	Tony Pollard TEN	8.5	2	-76%
09-27	Javonte Williams DAL	14.5	5	-66%
09-20	Travis Etienne NO	11.5	6	-48%
09-20	Alvin Kamara NO	12.5	7	-44%
09-13	Jonathan Taylor IND	18.5	23	+24%

J.K. DobbinsRB DEN vs LAC

9.5Underdog

20%1/5

4.6-4.9

-0.0%

0.04

0.0

75%

4.3

—

40%

-2.4

-2.60

#1729.6

—

#214.9

—

#230.5

#15-0.1

33%2/6

Under in 8 of last 10

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 9.5

7vs LV4% tgt
0@ KC0% tgt
0vs JAX0% tgt
4vs LA6% tgt
12@ SF5% tgt

Target share: 2.9%
Targets / game: 1.0
WOPR: 0.04
aDOT: 0.0
Catch %: 75%
Snap %: 40%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -2.4

Over 9.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1513%2/15
This season25%1/4
vs LAC0%0/1

RBs vs LAC this season · against their closing line

33% went over (2 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	George Holani SEA	10.5	2	-81%
10-04	Emanuel Wilson SEA	6.5	39	+500%
09-27	James Cook BUF	11.5	0	-100%
09-20	Ashton Jeanty LV	26.5	15	-43%
09-13	Tyler Allgeier ARI	2.5	9	+260%
09-13	Jeremiyah Love ARI	15.5	9	-42%

Jaylen WrightRB MIA vs CIN

1.5PrizePicks

20%1/5

3.4+1.9

-1.2%

0.02

—

22%

—

#738.3

—

#175.3

—

#130.8

#21-0.6

71%5/7

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▼ 4.2 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 1.5

0vs TB0% tgt
17@ NE8% tgt
0@ LV0% tgt
0@ SF0% tgt
0@ MIN0% tgt

Target share: 2.1%
Targets / game: 0.5
WOPR: 0.02
aDOT: —
Catch %: —
Snap %: 22%
RZ share: —
CROE: —

Over 1.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1527%4/15
This season0%0/3
vs CIN100%1/1

RBs vs CIN this season · against their closing line

71% went over (5 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	10.5	18	+71%
09-27	Travis Homer PIT	5.5	0	-100%
09-27	Jaylen Warren PIT	25.5	49	+92%
09-20	Woody Marks HOU	10.5	27	+157%
09-20	David Montgomery HOU	11.5	14	+22%
09-13	Bucky Irving TB	13.5	48	+256%

Isaiah DavisRB NYJ vs CLE

—

-0.8%

0.01

—

10%

—

#2923.8

—

#185.2

—

#81.0

#32-3.0

38%3/8

Role ▼ 3.7 ptsTough matchup #29

Last 5 games · receiving yards

52@ NO12% tgt
9vs NE3% tgt
0vs GB0% tgt
0@ DET0% tgt
0@ CHI0% tgt

Target share: 0.8%
Targets / game: 0.2
WOPR: 0.01
aDOT: —
Catch %: —
Snap %: 10%
RZ share: —
CROE: —

RBs vs CLE this season · against their closing line

38% went over (3 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-01	Travis Homer PIT	9.5	0	-100%
10-01	Jaylen Warren PIT	25.5	33	+29%
09-27	Chuba Hubbard CAR	14.5	28	+93%
09-27	AJ Dillon CAR	0.5	-2	-500%
09-20	Kenny Gainwell TB	12.5	5	-60%
09-20	Bucky Irving TB	17.5	1	-94%
09-13	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
09-13	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	11.5	22	+91%

Chris RodriguezRB JAX vs PHI

9.5Underdog

20%1/5

3.6-5.9

0.0%

0.00

—

27%

—

#539.0

—

#76.3

—

#220.5

#81.1

33%2/6

Under in 9 of last 10Role ▼ 3.1 ptsSoft matchup #5

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 9.5

18@ PHI5% tgt
0vs CLE0% tgt
0@ DEN0% tgt
0vs NE0% tgt
0@ CIN0% tgt

Target share: 0.0%
Targets / game: 0.0
WOPR: 0.00
aDOT: —
Catch %: —
Snap %: 27%
RZ share: —
CROE: —

Over 9.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1010%1/10
Last 157%1/15
This season0%0/4
vs PHI33%1/3

RBs vs PHI this season · against their closing line

33% went over (2 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kyren Williams LA	13.5	67	+396%
09-28	Kyle Monangai CHI	8.5	0	-100%
09-28	D'Andre Swift CHI	13.5	4	-70%
09-20	Tyjae Spears TEN	15.5	29	+87%
09-20	Tony Pollard TEN	7.5	1	-87%
09-13	Rachaad White WAS	14.5	5	-66%

Dameon PierceRB PHI vs JAX

14.5Underdog

0%0/5

0.0-14.5

0.0%

0.00

—

16%

—

#1234.7

—

#66.5

—

#280.2

#16-0.1

43%3/7

Under in 10 of last 10Role ▼ 3.6 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 14.5

0@ LA4% tgt
0@ BAL0% tgt
0vs SF0% tgt
0vs JAX0% tgt
0@ LV0% tgt

Target share: 0.0%
Targets / game: 0.0
WOPR: 0.00
aDOT: —
Catch %: —
Snap %: 16%
RZ share: —
CROE: —

Over 14.5 by window

Last 50%0/5
Last 100%0/10
Last 150%0/15
This seasonNo games
vs JAX0%0/2

RBs vs JAX this season · against their closing line

43% went over (3 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Samaje Perine CIN	8.5	0	-100%
10-04	Chase Brown CIN	19.5	71	+264%
09-27	TreVeyon Henderson NE	9.5	6	-37%
09-27	Rhamondre Stevenson NE	14.5	16	+10%
09-20	J.K. Dobbins DEN	7.5	0	-100%
09-13	Quinshon Judkins CLE	9.5	17	+79%
09-13	Dylan Sampson CLE	8.5	0	-100%

Najee HarrisRB NYG vs WAS

2.5PrizePicks

20%1/5

4.0+1.5

0.0%

0.00

—

17%

—

#2426.6

—

#165.3

—

#300.2

#120.7

25%2/8

Role ▼ 9.8 pts

Last 5 games · receiving yards vs 2.5

20@ LV7% tgt
0vs DEN0% tgt
0@ LA0% tgt
0vs TEN0% tgt
0vs ARI0% tgt

Target share: 0.0%
Targets / game: 0.0
WOPR: 0.00
aDOT: —
Catch %: —
Snap %: 17%
RZ share: —
CROE: —

Over 2.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1560%9/15
This season0%0/3
vs WAS0%0/1

RBs vs WAS this season · against their closing line

25% went over (2 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Jonathan Taylor IND	19.5	2	-90%
09-27	Jadarian Price SEA	8.5	7	-18%
09-27	George Holani SEA	5.5	48	+773%
09-27	Emanuel Wilson SEA	0.5	0	-100%
09-20	Javonte Williams DAL	13.5	20	+48%
09-20	Hunter Luepke DAL	24.5	0	-100%
09-13	Tank Bigsby PHI	0.5	0	-100%
09-13	Saquon Barkley PHI	15.5	-3	-119%

How to read this

L10 graph / hit: the player’s last 10 games against this week’s line (green over, red under). L10 avg · vs line is their last-10 average and how far it sits from the line.
Target share, air yards share and WOPR (1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share, nflverse) cover the last 4 games; Role ▲/▼ marks a 3+ point target-share change against the 4 games before. aDOT, Catch %, YAC/rec and RACR (yards per air yard) are this season.
Hit window sets which games the graph, hit rate and average count: last 5, 10 or 15, this season, or only games against this week’s opponent. Research flags always use the last 10.
RZ share, EZ tgts, Deep % and 3rd-down share come from nflverse play-by-play this season: red zone = inside the 20, end zone = thrown at or beyond the goal line, deep = 20+ air yards. CROE is catch rate minus nflverse’s expected catch rate for the same throws (points); YACOE is yards after catch minus nflverse’s expected, per catch.
Opp columns rank what this week’s defense allowed to the position over its last 10 games; #1 allowed the most (green = soft, red = tough). Pos. vs close is how often players at the position went over their consensus closing line against this defense this season (SportsGameOdds).
Research flags describe past games only; they are not a projection or a pick. Click any row for that player’s game-by-game detail and a link to full Prop Research.