NFL Receiving Lab: Target Share, Air Yards & aDOT

Every pass-catcher with a line this week: how they’re being used, how their last 10 games went against the line, and what this week’s defense allows to their position. Matchup Cheat Sheet →

Softest vs TE CIN #1 in rec yds allowed to TEs · 89/g Greg Dulcich · 14.3% target share Biggest role riser Isaiah Likely Target share +19.8 pts (last 4 vs 4 before) now 31.0% Steadiest over Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 in 7 of last 10 Rec Red-zone magnet Isaiah Likely 46% of NYG red-zone targets (6 of 13) 1 end-zone targets this season

Player

Rec line

L5 graph

L5 hit

L5 avg · vs line

Target share

Trend

RZ share

Opp Rec

Research flags

Trey McBrideTE ARI vs DET

7.5DraftKings

60%3/5

8.0+0.5

#17.5

Soft matchup #1

Last 5 games · receptions vs 7.5

7@ LA29% tgt
9@ LAC35% tgt
8vs SEA38% tgt
9@ SF22% tgt
7@ NYG34% tgt

Target share: 32.5%
Targets / game: 11.5
WOPR: 0.68
aDOT: 5.5
Catch %: 72%
Snap %: 89%
RZ share: 32%
CROE: +2.8

Over 7.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1567%10/15
This season75%3/4
vs DET0%0/1

TEs vs DET this season · against their closing line

67% went over (6 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tommy Tremble CAR	1.5	4	+167%
10-04	Mitchell Evans CAR	1.5	1	-33%
10-04	Darren Waller CAR	3.5	3	-14%
09-27	Kenyon Sadiq NYJ	3.5	7	+100%
09-27	Jeremy Ruckert NYJ	1.5	5	+233%
09-17	Dawson Knox BUF	1.5	2	+33%
09-17	Dalton Kincaid BUF	4.5	7	+56%
09-13	Noah Fant NO	1.5	4	+167%

Isaiah LikelyTE NYG vs WAS

4.5DraftKings

60%3/5

4.8+0.3

#175.2

Role ▲ 19.8 pts

Last 5 games · receptions vs 4.5

2@ PIT12% tgt
8vs DAL28% tgt
5@ LA31% tgt
2vs TEN24% tgt
7vs ARI41% tgt

Target share: 31.0%
Targets / game: 8.8
WOPR: 0.62
aDOT: 7.0
Catch %: 63%
Snap %: 67%
RZ share: 46%
CROE: -6.6

Over 4.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1527%4/15
This season75%3/4
vs WAS0%0/1

TEs vs WAS this season · against their closing line

60% went over (3 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Warren IND	5.5	5	-9%
09-27	AJ Barner SEA	2.5	5	+100%
09-20	Jake Ferguson DAL	3.5	4	+14%
09-20	Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL	1.5	0	-100%
09-13	Dallas Goedert PHI	3.5	4	+14%

Brock BowersTE LV vs NE

6.5DraftKings

20%1/5

6.2-0.3

#293.9

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▲ 8.2 ptsTough matchup #29

Last 5 games · receptions vs 6.5

4vs DEN18% tgt
6@ PHI32% tgt
5@ HOU23% tgt
10@ NO43% tgt
6vs KC23% tgt

Target share: 30.2%
Targets / game: 9.2
WOPR: 0.61
aDOT: 10.6
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 87%
RZ share: 44%
CROE: +4.6

Over 6.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1520%3/15
This season50%1/2
vs NE0%0/1

TEs vs NE this season · against their closing line

33% went over (2 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Dawson Knox BUF	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	Dalton Kincaid BUF	4.5	1	-78%
09-27	Brenton Strange JAX	3.5	3	-14%
09-20	Pat Freiermuth PIT	3.5	4	+14%
09-20	Darnell Washington PIT	1.5	1	-33%
09-09	AJ Barner SEA	2.5	2	-20%

T.J. HockensonTE MIN vs NO

4.5DraftKings

20%1/5

4.6+0.1

#105.8

Under in 8 of last 10Role ▲ 9.8 pts

Last 5 games · receptions vs 4.5

1@ NYG4% tgt
4vs GB22% tgt
3@ CHI21% tgt
2@ TB16% tgt
13vs MIA39% tgt

Target share: 24.5%
Targets / game: 6.5
WOPR: 0.53
aDOT: 6.8
Catch %: 85%
Snap %: 76%
RZ share: 46%
CROE: +13.2

Over 4.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1527%4/15
This season25%1/4
vs NONo games

TEs vs NO this season · against their closing line

86% went over (6 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-05	Kyle Pitts ATL	2.5	3	+20%
10-05	Austin Hooper ATL	0.5	1	+100%
09-27	Michael Mayer LV	2.5	3	+20%
09-27	Brock Bowers LV	4.5	10	+122%
09-20	Mark Andrews BAL	4.5	6	+33%
09-20	Durham Smythe BAL	1.5	0	-100%
09-13	Sam LaPorta DET	4.5	5	+11%

Mark AndrewsTE BAL vs ATL

4.5DraftKings

40%2/5

4.0-0.5

#115.7

Under in 8 of last 10Role ▲ 4.3 pts

Last 5 games · receptions vs 4.5

2@ PIT18% tgt
4@ IND25% tgt
6vs NO24% tgt
3@ DAL25% tgt
5vs TEN21% tgt

Target share: 23.7%
Targets / game: 6.0
WOPR: 0.48
aDOT: 7.2
Catch %: 75%
Snap %: 63%
RZ share: 21%
CROE: +5.9

Over 4.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1513%2/15
This season50%2/4
vs ATLNo games

TEs vs ATL this season · against their closing line

75% went over (6 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-05	Oscar Delp NO	0.5	0	-100%
10-05	Juwan Johnson NO	4.5	6	+33%
09-24	Tucker Kraft GB	3.5	4	+14%
09-24	Jonnu Smith GB	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Tommy Tremble CAR	1.5	1	-33%
09-20	Darren Waller CAR	1.5	3	+100%
09-13	Pat Freiermuth PIT	2.5	5	+100%
09-13	Darnell Washington PIT	1.5	2	+33%

Tyler WarrenTE IND vs PIT

5.5DraftKings

40%2/5

5.6+0.1

#195.1

Under in 8 of last 10

Last 5 games · receptions vs 5.5

5@ HOU24% tgt
3vs BAL17% tgt
6@ KC23% tgt
9vs HOU29% tgt
5@ WAS17% tgt

Target share: 21.6%
Targets / game: 6.8
WOPR: 0.38
aDOT: 2.2
Catch %: 85%
Snap %: 90%
RZ share: 21%
CROE: +8.1

Over 5.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1520%3/15
This season50%2/4
vs PIT0%0/1

TEs vs PIT this season · against their closing line

14% went over (1 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-01	Harold Fannin Jr. CLE	4.5	3	-33%
10-01	Blake Whiteheart CLE	0.5	0	-100%
09-27	Mike Gesicki CIN	2.5	3	+20%
09-27	Drew Sample CIN	1.5	1	-33%
09-20	Hunter Henry NE	3.5	3	-14%
09-20	Eli Raridon NE	1.5	1	-33%
09-13	Kyle Pitts ATL	4.5	0	-100%

George KittleTE SF vs SEA

4.5DraftKings

20%1/5

3.4-1.1

#214.8

—

Last 5 games · receptions vs 4.5

1@ PHI7% tgt
2@ LA15% tgt
4vs MIA19% tgt
6vs ARI27% tgt
4vs DEN21% tgt

Target share: 20.3%
Targets / game: 5.5
WOPR: 0.46
aDOT: 8.4
Catch %: 73%
Snap %: 68%
RZ share: 24%
CROE: +5.5

Over 4.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season25%1/4
vs SEA67%2/3

TEs vs SEA this season · against their closing line

60% went over (3 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Oronde Gadsden II LAC	2.5	5	+100%
09-27	Ben Sinnott WAS	1.5	0	-100%
09-20	Trey McBride ARI	6.5	8	+23%
09-09	Hunter Henry NE	3.5	3	-14%
09-09	Eli Raridon NE	0.5	1	+100%

Harold FanninTE CLE vs NYJ

4.5DraftKings

40%2/5

3.8-0.7

#76.3

Role ▼ 6.6 pts

Last 5 games · receptions vs 4.5

2vs PIT9% tgt
2@ JAX14% tgt
5@ TB20% tgt
7vs CAR30% tgt
3vs PIT15% tgt

Target share: 19.7%
Targets / game: 5.8
WOPR: 0.44
aDOT: 6.1
Catch %: 74%
Snap %: 86%
RZ share: 23%
CROE: +10.0

Over 4.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season50%2/4
vs NYJ0%0/1

TEs vs NYJ this season · against their closing line

50% went over (3 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Colston Loveland CHI	3.5	6	+71%
10-04	Cole Kmet CHI	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Sam LaPorta DET	4.5	3	-33%
09-20	Tucker Kraft GB	3.5	2	-43%
09-13	Gunnar Helm TEN	2.5	4	+60%
09-13	Daniel Bellinger TEN	1.5	1	-33%

Sam LaPortaTE DET vs ARI

4.5DraftKings

80%4/5

5.4+0.9

#46.5

Over in 7 of last 10Soft matchup #4

Last 5 games · receptions vs 4.5

5@ WAS16% tgt
5vs NO20% tgt
6@ BUF18% tgt
3vs NYJ13% tgt
8@ CAR26% tgt

Target share: 19.3%
Targets / game: 8.0
WOPR: 0.39
aDOT: 5.9
Catch %: 69%
Snap %: 88%
RZ share: 27%
CROE: +3.2

Over 4.5 by window

Last 580%4/5
Last 1070%7/10
Last 1567%10/15
This season75%3/4
vs ARI0%0/1

TEs vs ARI this season · against their closing line

50% went over (3 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Theo Johnson NYG	1.5	1	-33%
10-04	Isaiah Likely NYG	3.5	7	+100%
09-27	George Kittle SF	4.5	6	+33%
09-20	AJ Barner SEA	2.5	1	-60%
09-13	David Njoku LAC	1.5	5	+233%
09-13	Charlie Kolar LAC	1.5	0	-100%

Brenton StrangeTE JAX vs PHI

3.5DraftKings

20%1/5

3.2-0.3

#313.6

Under in 7 of last 10Tough matchup #31

Last 5 games · receptions vs 3.5

2vs BUF17% tgt
2vs CLE14% tgt
2@ DEN7% tgt
3vs NE18% tgt
7@ CIN35% tgt

Target share: 18.7%
Targets / game: 4.5
WOPR: 0.41
aDOT: 7.8
Catch %: 78%
Snap %: 79%
RZ share: 12%
CROE: +8.1

Over 3.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season25%1/4
vs PHINo games

TEs vs PHI this season · against their closing line

33% went over (2 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Higbee LA	3.5	5	+43%
10-04	Davis Allen LA	1.5	0	-100%
09-28	Colston Loveland CHI	3.5	4	+14%
09-28	Cole Kmet CHI	1.5	0	-100%
09-20	Gunnar Helm TEN	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Daniel Bellinger TEN	1.5	0	-100%

Kenyon SadiqTE NYJ vs CLE

3.5DraftKings

25%1/4

3.0-0.5

#95.8

—

Last 4 games · receptions vs 3.5

3@ TEN13% tgt
2vs GB8% tgt
7@ DET22% tgt
0@ CHI27% tgt

Target share: 17.6%
Targets / game: 4.5
WOPR: 0.33
aDOT: 5.4
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 51%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -2.5

Over 3.5 by window

Last 525%1/4
Last 1025%1/4
Last 1525%1/4
This season25%1/4
vs CLENo games

TEs vs CLE this season · against their closing line

71% went over (5 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-01	Pat Freiermuth PIT	3.5	3	-14%
10-01	Darnell Washington PIT	1.5	3	+100%
09-27	Tommy Tremble CAR	1.5	3	+100%
09-27	Mitchell Evans CAR	0.5	3	+500%
09-27	Darren Waller CAR	2.5	5	+100%
09-20	Cade Otton TB	2.5	5	+100%
09-13	Brenton Strange JAX	3.5	2	-43%

Mason TaylorTE NYJ vs CLE

1.5DraftKings

100%5/5

3.2+1.7

#95.8

Over in 8 of last 10

Last 5 games · receptions vs 1.5

4@ NE15% tgt
3@ BAL18% tgt
2vs ATL13% tgt
5vs MIA25% tgt
2@ TEN13% tgt

Target share: 17.4%
Targets / game: 5.0
WOPR: 0.32
aDOT: 0.3
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 76%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -14.4

Over 1.5 by window

Last 5100%5/5
Last 1080%8/10
Last 1571%10/14
This season100%1/1
vs CLE0%0/1

TEs vs CLE this season · against their closing line

71% went over (5 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-01	Pat Freiermuth PIT	3.5	3	-14%
10-01	Darnell Washington PIT	1.5	3	+100%
09-27	Tommy Tremble CAR	1.5	3	+100%
09-27	Mitchell Evans CAR	0.5	3	+500%
09-27	Darren Waller CAR	2.5	5	+100%
09-20	Cade Otton TB	2.5	5	+100%
09-13	Brenton Strange JAX	3.5	2	-43%

Dalton SchultzTE HOU vs TEN

4.5DraftKings

20%1/5

4.6+0.1

#145.4

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▲ 5.7 pts

Last 5 games · receptions vs 4.5

2@ NE4% tgt
4vs BUF22% tgt
12vs CIN28% tgt
3@ IND12% tgt
2vs DAL8% tgt

Target share: 17.3%
Targets / game: 6.8
WOPR: 0.33
aDOT: 6.0
Catch %: 78%
Snap %: 63%
RZ share: 14%
CROE: +7.2

Over 4.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season25%1/4
vs TEN50%2/4

TEs vs TEN this season · against their closing line

20% went over (1 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Mark Andrews BAL	3.5	5	+43%
10-04	Durham Smythe BAL	0.5	0	-100%
09-27	Isaiah Likely NYG	3.5	2	-43%
09-20	Dallas Goedert PHI	3.5	1	-71%
09-13	Mason Taylor NYJ	2.5	2	-20%

Michael MayerTE LV vs NE

3.5DraftKings

40%2/5

4.6+1.1

#293.9

Under in 7 of last 10Tough matchup #29

Last 5 games · receptions vs 3.5

3vs KC19% tgt
6vs MIA24% tgt
3@ LAC14% tgt
3@ NO10% tgt
8vs KC21% tgt

Target share: 17.2%
Targets / game: 6.0
WOPR: 0.32
aDOT: 4.8
Catch %: 83%
Snap %: 85%
RZ share: 10%
CROE: +7.8

Over 3.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1527%4/15
This season50%2/4
vs NE100%1/1

TEs vs NE this season · against their closing line

33% went over (2 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Dawson Knox BUF	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	Dalton Kincaid BUF	4.5	1	-78%
09-27	Brenton Strange JAX	3.5	3	-14%
09-20	Pat Freiermuth PIT	3.5	4	+14%
09-20	Darnell Washington PIT	1.5	1	-33%
09-09	AJ Barner SEA	2.5	2	-20%

Dalton KincaidTE BUF vs LAR

4.5DraftKings

60%3/5

4.2-0.3

#244.3

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▲ 5.6 pts

Last 5 games · receptions vs 4.5

6@ DEN15% tgt
5@ HOU21% tgt
7vs DET29% tgt
2vs LAC12% tgt
1vs NE7% tgt

Target share: 17.1%
Targets / game: 4.8
WOPR: 0.40
aDOT: 12.6
Catch %: 79%
Snap %: 66%
RZ share: 6%
CROE: +13.8

Over 4.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1533%5/15
This season50%2/4
vs LARNo games

TEs vs LAR this season · against their closing line

20% went over (1 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Johnny Mundt PHI	1.5	0	-100%
09-27	Evan Engram DEN	2.5	0	-100%
09-21	Theo Johnson NYG	1.5	0	-100%
09-21	Isaiah Likely NYG	4.5	5	+11%
09-10	George Kittle SF	3.5	2	-43%

Juwan JohnsonTE NO vs MIN

4.5DraftKings

40%2/5

4.8+0.3

#322.2

Tough matchup #32

Last 5 games · receptions vs 4.5

3@ ATL15% tgt
3@ DET14% tgt
4@ BAL12% tgt
8vs LV20% tgt
6vs ATL17% tgt

Target share: 15.7%
Targets / game: 6.8
WOPR: 0.30
aDOT: 6.0
Catch %: 78%
Snap %: 69%
RZ share: 27%
CROE: +8.6

Over 4.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season50%2/4
vs MINNo games

TEs vs MIN this season · against their closing line

0% went over (0 of 4)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
09-27	Cade Otton TB	3.5	3	-14%
09-20	Colston Loveland CHI	4.5	1	-78%
09-20	Cole Kmet CHI	1.5	0	-100%
09-13	Tucker Kraft GB	3.5	3	-14%

Greg DulcichTE MIA vs CIN

2.5DraftKings

60%3/5

3.4+0.9

#27.1

Soft matchup #2

Last 5 games · receptions vs 2.5

5vs TB27% tgt
3@ NE17% tgt
2@ LV7% tgt
2@ SF13% tgt
5vs KC20% tgt

Target share: 14.3%
Targets / game: 4.0
WOPR: 0.27
aDOT: 5.7
Catch %: 75%
Snap %: 65%
RZ share: 50%
CROE: +1.6

Over 2.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season33%1/3
vs CIN100%1/1

TEs vs CIN this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Brenton Strange JAX	3.5	7	+100%
09-27	Pat Freiermuth PIT	3.5	2	-43%
09-27	Darnell Washington PIT	1.5	3	+100%
09-20	Foster Moreau HOU	0.5	2	+300%
09-20	Dalton Schultz HOU	4.5	12	+167%
09-13	Cade Otton TB	3.5	3	-14%

Chig OkonkwoTE WAS vs NYG

3.5Underdog

20%1/5

3.0-0.5

#155.3

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▼ 4.4 pts

Last 5 games · receptions vs 3.5

6vs KC30% tgt
3vs NO20% tgt
2@ JAX15% tgt
2@ PHI10% tgt
2vs IND11% tgt

Target share: 14.2%
Targets / game: 4.8
WOPR: 0.29
aDOT: 8.6
Catch %: 57%
Snap %: 57%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -9.9

Over 3.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season0%0/2
vs NYGNo games

TEs vs NYG this season · against their closing line

44% went over (4 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Trey McBride ARI	6.5	7	+8%
10-04	Elijah Higgins ARI	0.5	2	+300%
09-27	Gunnar Helm TEN	2.5	2	-20%
09-27	Daniel Bellinger TEN	1.5	2	+33%
09-21	Terrance Ferguson LA	2.5	6	+140%
09-21	Davis Allen LA	1.5	1	-33%
09-21	Colby Parkinson LA	3.5	2	-43%
09-13	Jake Ferguson DAL	3.5	2	-43%

Hunter HenryTE NE vs LV

3.5DraftKings

20%1/5

3.0-0.5

#185.1

Under in 8 of last 10

Last 5 games · receptions vs 3.5

3vs SEA12% tgt
3@ SEA10% tgt
3vs PIT24% tgt
1@ JAX7% tgt
5@ BUF14% tgt

Target share: 13.5%
Targets / game: 3.8
WOPR: 0.29
aDOT: 7.9
Catch %: 80%
Snap %: 75%
RZ share: 7%
CROE: +11.3

Over 3.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season25%1/4
vs LV100%1/1

TEs vs LV this season · against their closing line

62% went over (5 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Travis Kelce KC	4.5	2	-56%
10-04	Noah Gray KC	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Noah Fant NO	1.5	4	+167%
09-27	Juwan Johnson NO	3.5	8	+129%
09-20	Oronde Gadsden II LAC	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	David Njoku LAC	2.5	1	-60%
09-20	Charlie Kolar LAC	0.5	3	+500%
09-13	Greg Dulcich MIA	2.5	2	-20%

Pat FreiermuthTE PIT vs IND

3.5DraftKings

40%2/5

3.0-0.5

#135.4

Under in 7 of last 10

Last 5 games · receptions vs 3.5

1vs HOU10% tgt
5vs ATL14% tgt
4@ NE14% tgt
2vs CIN13% tgt
3@ CLE13% tgt

Target share: 13.2%
Targets / game: 4.8
WOPR: 0.28
aDOT: 8.2
Catch %: 74%
Snap %: 68%
RZ share: 19%
CROE: +7.0

Over 3.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1520%3/15
This season50%2/4
vs IND50%1/2

TEs vs IND this season · against their closing line

50% went over (3 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Chig Okonkwo WAS	3.5	2	-43%
09-27	Foster Moreau HOU	0.5	2	+300%
09-27	Dalton Schultz HOU	5.5	3	-45%
09-20	Travis Kelce KC	3.5	9	+157%
09-20	Noah Gray KC	1.5	0	-100%
09-13	Mark Andrews BAL	3.5	4	+14%

Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC vs DEN

3.5Underdog

20%1/5

2.4-1.1

#125.7

Under in 8 of last 10

Last 5 games · receptions vs 3.5

3@ NE10% tgt
2vs ARI7% tgt
2vs LV8% tgt
0@ BUF9% tgt
5@ SEA26% tgt

Target share: 12.5%
Targets / game: 3.8
WOPR: 0.25
aDOT: 6.3
Catch %: 60%
Snap %: 44%
RZ share: 23%
CROE: -2.8

Over 3.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1527%4/15
This season25%1/4
vs DEN50%1/2

TEs vs DEN this season · against their closing line

12% went over (1 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	George Kittle SF	4.5	4	-11%
09-27	Tyler Higbee LA	1.5	8	+433%
09-27	Terrance Ferguson LA	4.5	1	-78%
09-27	Davis Allen LA	2.5	2	-20%
09-27	Colby Parkinson LA	2.5	0	-100%
09-20	Brenton Strange JAX	3.5	2	-43%
09-14	Travis Kelce KC	4.5	3	-33%
09-14	Noah Gray KC	1.5	1	-33%

AJ BarnerTE SEA vs SF

2.5DraftKings

40%2/5

2.6+0.1

#165.2

Role ▲ 3.9 pts

Last 5 games · receptions vs 2.5

4@ NE11% tgt
2vs NE8% tgt
1@ ARI4% tgt
5@ WAS20% tgt
1vs LAC15% tgt

Target share: 11.8%
Targets / game: 3.8
WOPR: 0.21
aDOT: 2.3
Catch %: 60%
Snap %: 87%
RZ share: 24%
CROE: -13.3

Over 2.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season25%1/4
vs SF0%0/5

TEs vs SF this season · against their closing line

29% went over (2 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Evan Engram DEN	2.5	1	-60%
10-04	Adam Trautman DEN	0.5	0	-100%
09-27	Trey McBride ARI	7.5	9	+20%
09-20	Greg Dulcich MIA	2.5	2	-20%
09-10	Tyler Higbee LA	1.5	2	+33%
09-10	Terrance Ferguson LA	1.5	0	-100%
09-10	Colby Parkinson LA	2.5	1	-60%

Gunnar HelmTE TEN vs HOU

2.5DraftKings

20%1/5

2.0-0.5

#86.0

—

Last 5 games · receptions vs 2.5

1vs NO6% tgt
4vs NYJ18% tgt
2vs PHI12% tgt
2@ NYG11% tgt
1@ BAL4% tgt

Target share: 11.2%
Targets / game: 3.0
WOPR: 0.20
aDOT: 3.8
Catch %: 75%
Snap %: 79%
RZ share: 23%
CROE: +9.4

Over 2.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season25%1/4
vs HOU50%1/2

TEs vs HOU this season · against their closing line

50% went over (3 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Jake Ferguson DAL	3.5	3	-14%
10-04	Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL	0.5	0	-100%
09-27	Tyler Warren IND	4.5	9	+100%
09-20	Erick All CIN	1.5	2	+33%
09-13	Dawson Knox BUF	1.5	1	-33%
09-13	Dalton Kincaid BUF	3.5	5	+43%

Mike GesickiTE CIN vs MIA

—

#37.0

Soft matchup #3

Last 5 games · receptions

2vs ARI6% tgt
2vs CLE5% tgt
5vs TB21% tgt
3@ PIT8% tgt
3vs JAX9% tgt

Target share: 10.8%
Targets / game: 4.2
WOPR: 0.26
aDOT: 10.4
Catch %: 73%
Snap %: 46%
RZ share: 20%
CROE: +15.1

TEs vs MIA this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	T.J. Hockenson MIN	4.5	13	+189%
09-27	Travis Kelce KC	4.5	2	-56%
09-27	Noah Gray KC	0.5	3	+500%
09-20	Luke Farrell SF	1.5	0	-100%
09-20	George Kittle SF	3.5	4	+14%
09-13	Michael Mayer LV	4.5	6	+33%

Evan EngramTE DEN vs LAC

2.5DraftKings

20%1/5

1.6-0.9

#234.5

Under in 7 of last 10

Last 5 games · receptions vs 2.5

2vs NE11% tgt
4@ KC18% tgt
1vs JAX3% tgt
0vs LA6% tgt
1@ SF13% tgt

Target share: 10.4%
Targets / game: 3.2
WOPR: 0.23
aDOT: 4.7
Catch %: 46%
Snap %: 60%
RZ share: 6%
CROE: -20.1

Over 2.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1533%5/15
This season25%1/4
vs LAC100%1/1

TEs vs LAC this season · against their closing line

17% went over (1 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Eric Saubert SEA	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	AJ Barner SEA	3.5	1	-71%
09-27	Dawson Knox BUF	1.5	1	-33%
09-27	Dalton Kincaid BUF	4.5	2	-56%
09-20	Michael Mayer LV	5.5	3	-45%
09-13	Trey McBride ARI	6.5	9	+38%

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE ATL vs BAL

2.5DraftKings

40%2/5

2.2-0.3

#254.2

Role ▼ 15.5 pts

Last 5 games · receptions vs 2.5

6vs NO30% tgt
0@ PIT5% tgt
1vs CAR10% tgt
1@ GB9% tgt
3@ NO15% tgt

Target share: 9.7%
Targets / game: 2.2
WOPR: 0.25
aDOT: 7.6
Catch %: 56%
Snap %: 53%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -15.3

Over 2.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season25%1/4
vs BALNo games

TEs vs BAL this season · against their closing line

29% went over (2 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Gunnar Helm TEN	2.5	1	-60%
10-04	Daniel Bellinger TEN	0.5	1	+100%
09-27	Luke Schoonmaker DAL	1.5	1	-33%
09-27	Jake Ferguson DAL	3.5	3	-14%
09-20	Noah Fant NO	1.5	0	-100%
09-20	Juwan Johnson NO	3.5	4	+14%
09-13	Tyler Warren IND	4.5	3	-33%

Darnell WashingtonTE PIT vs IND

2.5DraftKings

40%2/5

2.2-0.3

#135.4

—

Last 5 games · receptions vs 2.5

2@ CLE5% tgt
2vs ATL5% tgt
1@ NE5% tgt
3vs CIN13% tgt
3@ CLE13% tgt

Target share: 9.1%
Targets / game: 3.2
WOPR: 0.17
aDOT: 5.1
Catch %: 69%
Snap %: 66%
RZ share: 12%
CROE: -0.2

Over 2.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season50%2/4
vs IND50%1/2

TEs vs IND this season · against their closing line

50% went over (3 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Chig Okonkwo WAS	3.5	2	-43%
09-27	Foster Moreau HOU	0.5	2	+300%
09-27	Dalton Schultz HOU	5.5	3	-45%
09-20	Travis Kelce KC	3.5	9	+157%
09-20	Noah Gray KC	1.5	0	-100%
09-13	Mark Andrews BAL	3.5	4	+14%

Theo JohnsonTE NYG vs WAS

1.5Underdog

20%1/5

1.0-0.5

#175.2

Role ▼ 9.5 pts

Last 5 games · receptions vs 1.5

3vs WAS11% tgt
0vs MIN15% tgt
1vs DAL3% tgt
0@ LA12% tgt
1vs ARI3% tgt

Target share: 8.7%
Targets / game: 2.0
WOPR: 0.18
aDOT: 11.3
Catch %: 33%
Snap %: 51%
RZ share: 8%
CROE: -21.8

Over 1.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1573%11/15
This season0%0/3
vs WAS67%2/3

TEs vs WAS this season · against their closing line

60% went over (3 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Warren IND	5.5	5	-9%
09-27	AJ Barner SEA	2.5	5	+100%
09-20	Jake Ferguson DAL	3.5	4	+14%
09-20	Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL	1.5	0	-100%
09-13	Dallas Goedert PHI	3.5	4	+14%

Noah FantTE NO vs MIN

1.5DraftKings

40%2/5

1.8+0.3

#322.2

Tough matchup #32

Last 5 games · receptions vs 1.5

0vs ARI3% tgt
1vs CLE3% tgt
4@ DET15% tgt
0@ BAL0% tgt
4vs LV10% tgt

Target share: 7.0%
Targets / game: 3.2
WOPR: 0.13
aDOT: 5.1
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 41%
RZ share: 19%
CROE: -5.9

Over 1.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1560%9/15
This season67%2/3
vs MIN100%2/2

TEs vs MIN this season · against their closing line

0% went over (0 of 4)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
09-27	Cade Otton TB	3.5	3	-14%
09-20	Colston Loveland CHI	4.5	1	-78%
09-20	Cole Kmet CHI	1.5	0	-100%
09-13	Tucker Kraft GB	3.5	3	-14%

Drew SampleTE CIN vs MIA

—

#37.0

Soft matchup #3

Last 5 games · receptions

2@ MIA6% tgt
1vs ARI3% tgt
3vs CLE8% tgt
3vs TB9% tgt
1@ PIT5% tgt

Target share: 6.3%
Targets / game: 2.2
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: 0.6
Catch %: 80%
Snap %: 64%
RZ share: 11%
CROE: -2.8

TEs vs MIA this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	T.J. Hockenson MIN	4.5	13	+189%
09-27	Travis Kelce KC	4.5	2	-56%
09-27	Noah Gray KC	0.5	3	+500%
09-20	Luke Farrell SF	1.5	0	-100%
09-20	George Kittle SF	3.5	4	+14%
09-13	Michael Mayer LV	4.5	6	+33%

Elijah HigginsTE ARI vs DET

0.5Underdog

60%3/5

1.6+1.1

#17.5

Over in 7 of last 10Role ▼ 3.9 ptsSoft matchup #1

Last 5 games · receptions vs 0.5

0@ CIN3% tgt
3@ LA11% tgt
0vs SEA0% tgt
3@ SF6% tgt
2@ NYG6% tgt

Target share: 5.6%
Targets / game: 2.0
WOPR: 0.10
aDOT: 2.0
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 40%
RZ share: 5%
CROE: +26.1

Over 0.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1070%7/10
Last 1580%12/15
This season67%2/3
vs DET100%1/1

TEs vs DET this season · against their closing line

67% went over (6 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tommy Tremble CAR	1.5	4	+167%
10-04	Mitchell Evans CAR	1.5	1	-33%
10-04	Darren Waller CAR	3.5	3	-14%
09-27	Kenyon Sadiq NYJ	3.5	7	+100%
09-27	Jeremy Ruckert NYJ	1.5	5	+233%
09-17	Dawson Knox BUF	1.5	2	+33%
09-17	Dalton Kincaid BUF	4.5	7	+56%
09-13	Noah Fant NO	1.5	4	+167%

Dawson KnoxTE BUF vs LAR

1.5DraftKings

60%3/5

1.8+0.3

#244.3

Over in 7 of last 10Role ▼ 5.6 pts

Last 5 games · receptions vs 1.5

3@ DEN13% tgt
1@ HOU4% tgt
2vs DET7% tgt
1vs LAC4% tgt
2vs NE7% tgt

Target share: 5.3%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: 1.8
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 68%
RZ share: 12%
CROE: +23.2

Over 1.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1070%7/10
Last 1573%11/15
This season50%2/4
vs LAR0%0/1

TEs vs LAR this season · against their closing line

20% went over (1 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Johnny Mundt PHI	1.5	0	-100%
09-27	Evan Engram DEN	2.5	0	-100%
09-21	Theo Johnson NYG	1.5	0	-100%
09-21	Isaiah Likely NYG	4.5	5	+11%
09-10	George Kittle SF	3.5	2	-43%

Ian ThomasTE LV vs NE

0.5BetMGM

100%5/5

2.0+1.5

#293.9

Over in 9 of last 10Tough matchup #29

Last 5 games · receptions vs 0.5

4vs CLE10% tgt
1@ LAC4% tgt
2vs DEN7% tgt
1@ LAC3% tgt
2vs KC4% tgt

Target share: 4.8%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: 8.7
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 46%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: +31.7

Over 0.5 by window

Last 5100%5/5
Last 1090%9/10
Last 1579%11/14
This season100%2/2
vs NENo games

TEs vs NE this season · against their closing line

33% went over (2 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Dawson Knox BUF	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	Dalton Kincaid BUF	4.5	1	-78%
09-27	Brenton Strange JAX	3.5	3	-14%
09-20	Pat Freiermuth PIT	3.5	4	+14%
09-20	Darnell Washington PIT	1.5	1	-33%
09-09	AJ Barner SEA	2.5	2	-20%

Eli RaridonTE NE vs LV

1.5DraftKings

0%0/3

1.0-0.5

#185.1

—

Last 3 games · receptions vs 1.5

1@ SEA3% tgt
1vs PIT5% tgt
1@ BUF6% tgt

Target share: 4.5%
Targets / game: 1.3
WOPR: 0.11
aDOT: 10.2
Catch %: 75%
Snap %: 44%
RZ share: 25%
CROE: +21.9

Over 1.5 by window

Last 50%0/3
Last 100%0/3
Last 150%0/3
This season0%0/3
vs LVNo games

TEs vs LV this season · against their closing line

62% went over (5 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Travis Kelce KC	4.5	2	-56%
10-04	Noah Gray KC	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Noah Fant NO	1.5	4	+167%
09-27	Juwan Johnson NO	3.5	8	+129%
09-20	Oronde Gadsden II LAC	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	David Njoku LAC	2.5	1	-60%
09-20	Charlie Kolar LAC	0.5	3	+500%
09-13	Greg Dulcich MIA	2.5	2	-20%

Tanner HudsonTE CIN vs MIA

0.5Underdog

100%5/5

1.4+0.9

#37.0

Over in 10 of last 10Soft matchup #3

Last 5 games · receptions vs 0.5

1@ MIA3% tgt
2vs ARI6% tgt
1vs TB3% tgt
2@ PIT5% tgt
1vs JAX2% tgt

Target share: 4.1%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.07
aDOT: 3.8
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 25%
RZ share: 7%
CROE: +23.0

Over 0.5 by window

Last 5100%5/5
Last 10100%10/10
Last 15100%15/15
This season100%3/3
vs MIA100%1/1

TEs vs MIA this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	T.J. Hockenson MIN	4.5	13	+189%
09-27	Travis Kelce KC	4.5	2	-56%
09-27	Noah Gray KC	0.5	3	+500%
09-20	Luke Farrell SF	1.5	0	-100%
09-20	George Kittle SF	3.5	4	+14%
09-13	Michael Mayer LV	4.5	6	+33%

How to read this

L10 graph / hit: the player’s last 10 games against this week’s line (green over, red under). L10 avg · vs line is their last-10 average and how far it sits from the line.
Target share, air yards share and WOPR (1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share, nflverse) cover the last 4 games; Role ▲/▼ marks a 3+ point target-share change against the 4 games before. aDOT, Catch %, YAC/rec and RACR (yards per air yard) are this season.
Hit window sets which games the graph, hit rate and average count: last 5, 10 or 15, this season, or only games against this week’s opponent. Research flags always use the last 10.
RZ share, EZ tgts, Deep % and 3rd-down share come from nflverse play-by-play this season: red zone = inside the 20, end zone = thrown at or beyond the goal line, deep = 20+ air yards. CROE is catch rate minus nflverse’s expected catch rate for the same throws (points); YACOE is yards after catch minus nflverse’s expected, per catch.
Opp columns rank what this week’s defense allowed to the position over its last 10 games; #1 allowed the most (green = soft, red = tough). Pos. vs close is how often players at the position went over their consensus closing line against this defense this season (SportsGameOdds).
Research flags describe past games only; they are not a projection or a pick. Click any row for that player’s game-by-game detail and a link to full Prop Research.