NFL Receiving Lab: Target Share, Air Yards & aDOT

Every pass-catcher with a line this week: how they’re being used, how their last 10 games went against the line, and what this week’s defense allows to their position. Matchup Cheat Sheet →

Softest vs RB NYJ #1 in rec yds allowed to RBs · 46/g Quinshon Judkins · 13.4% target share Biggest role riser Jaylen Warren Target share +8.9 pts (last 4 vs 4 before) now 13.8% Steadiest over Rhamondre Stevenson Over 2.5 in 7 of last 10 Rec Red-zone magnet Braelon Allen 33% of NYJ red-zone targets (3 of 9) 0 end-zone targets this season

Player

Rec line

vs Opp graph

vs Opp hit

vs Opp avg · vs line

Target share

Trend

RZ share

Opp Rec

Research flags

RJ HarveyRB DEN vs LAC

4.5DraftKings

0%0/2

2.0-2.5

—

Role ▲ 6.8 pts

Last 2 games · receptions vs 4.5

3@ LAC13% tgt
1vs LAC17% tgt

Target share: 21.5%
Targets / game: 6.8
WOPR: 0.27
aDOT: -2.8
Catch %: 95%
Snap %: 46%
RZ share: 17%
CROE: +11.5

Over 4.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season67%2/3
vs LAC0%0/2

RBs vs LAC this season · against their closing line

57% went over (4 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	George Holani SEA	1.5	1	-33%
10-04	Emanuel Wilson SEA	1.5	3	+100%
09-27	Ty Johnson BUF	1.5	4	+167%
09-27	James Cook BUF	1.5	0	-100%
09-20	Ashton Jeanty LV	3.5	4	+14%
09-13	Tyler Allgeier ARI	0.5	2	+300%
09-13	Jeremiyah Love ARI	2.5	2	-20%

Bijan RobinsonRB ATL vs BAL

3.5DraftKings

—

Role ▼ 6.2 pts

Last 0 games · receptions vs 3.5

No game history for this player.

Target share: 21.1%
Targets / game: 4.5
WOPR: 0.24
aDOT: -1.8
Catch %: 78%
Snap %: 65%
RZ share: 20%
CROE: -4.4

Over 3.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season25%1/4
vs BALNo games

RBs vs BAL this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyjae Spears TEN	2.5	1	-60%
10-04	Tony Pollard TEN	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Javonte Williams DAL	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Travis Etienne NO	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Alvin Kamara NO	2.5	5	+100%
09-13	Jonathan Taylor IND	2.5	3	+20%

Christian McCaffreyRB SF vs SEA

4.5DraftKings

75%3/4

6.0+1.5

—

Role ▼ 3.5 pts

Last 4 games · receptions vs 4.5

4vs SEA18% tgt
9@ SEA29% tgt
6vs SEA26% tgt
5@ SEA22% tgt

Target share: 19.8%
Targets / game: 5.5
WOPR: 0.33
aDOT: 2.5
Catch %: 73%
Snap %: 66%
RZ share: 14%
CROE: -6.1

Over 4.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1560%9/15
This season25%1/4
vs SEA75%3/4

RBs vs SEA this season · against their closing line

86% went over (6 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Omarion Hampton LAC	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	Keaton Mitchell LAC	1.5	5	+233%
09-27	Rachaad White WAS	2.5	1	-60%
09-27	Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS	0.5	1	+100%
09-20	Tyler Allgeier ARI	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Jeremiyah Love ARI	2.5	3	+20%
09-09	Rhamondre Stevenson NE	3.5	5	+43%

Jahmyr GibbsRB DET vs ARI

4.5DraftKings

0%0/1

0.0-4.5

—

Last 1 games · receptions vs 4.5

0@ ARI0% tgt

Target share: 18.4%
Targets / game: 7.0
WOPR: 0.30
aDOT: 2.0
Catch %: 79%
Snap %: 78%
RZ share: 18%
CROE: +1.0

Over 4.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season75%3/4
vs ARI0%0/1

RBs vs ARI this season · against their closing line

0% went over (0 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Najee Harris NYG	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	Cam Skattebo NYG	2.5	1	-60%
09-27	Kyle Juszczyk SF	1.5	0	-100%
09-27	Christian McCaffrey SF	4.5	4	-11%
09-20	Jadarian Price SEA	1.5	1	-33%
09-20	George Holani SEA	1.5	1	-33%
09-13	Omarion Hampton LAC	2.5	0	-100%
09-13	Keaton Mitchell LAC	1.5	0	-100%

Ashton JeantyRB LV vs NE

4.5Underdog

0%0/1

2.0-2.5

—

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▲ 3.0 pts

Last 1 games · receptions vs 4.5

2@ NE6% tgt

Target share: 17.9%
Targets / game: 6.0
WOPR: 0.30
aDOT: 1.8
Catch %: 79%
Snap %: 76%
RZ share: 30%
CROE: +3.5

Over 4.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season50%2/4
vs NE0%0/1

RBs vs NE this season · against their closing line

56% went over (5 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Ty Johnson BUF	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	James Cook BUF	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX	0.5	2	+300%
09-27	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
09-27	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Rico Dowdle PIT	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Jaylen Warren PIT	3.5	2	-43%
09-09	Jadarian Price SEA	1.5	2	+33%

Chase BrownRB CIN vs MIA

—

Last 1 games · receptions

4@ MIA13% tgt

Target share: 15.0%
Targets / game: 6.0
WOPR: 0.20
aDOT: -0.8
Catch %: 88%
Snap %: 73%
RZ share: 6%
CROE: +9.2

RBs vs MIA this season · against their closing line

60% went over (3 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Aaron Jones MIN	3.5	4	+14%
09-27	Kenneth Walker III KC	3.5	2	-43%
09-20	Kyle Juszczyk SF	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Christian McCaffrey SF	4.5	4	-11%
09-13	Ashton Jeanty LV	3.5	6	+71%

Jaylen WarrenRB PIT vs IND

2.5DraftKings

0%0/1

2.0-0.5

—

Role ▲ 8.9 pts

Last 1 games · receptions vs 2.5

2vs IND6% tgt

Target share: 13.8%
Targets / game: 5.0
WOPR: 0.20
aDOT: -0.8
Catch %: 65%
Snap %: 74%
RZ share: 25%
CROE: -13.9

Over 2.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season75%3/4
vs IND0%0/1

RBs vs IND this season · against their closing line

43% went over (3 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kaytron Allen WAS	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Woody Marks HOU	1.5	1	-33%
09-27	David Montgomery HOU	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Kenneth Walker III KC	3.5	6	+71%
09-13	Justice Hill BAL	1.5	1	-33%
09-13	Derrick Henry BAL	1.5	1	-33%

Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE vs NYJ

2.5DraftKings

0%0/1

2.0-0.5

—

Last 1 games · receptions vs 2.5

2@ NYJ9% tgt

Target share: 13.4%
Targets / game: 4.0
WOPR: 0.17
aDOT: -1.8
Catch %: 94%
Snap %: 62%
RZ share: 23%
CROE: +11.5

Over 2.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season50%2/4
vs NYJ0%0/1

RBs vs NYJ this season · against their closing line

50% went over (4 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kyle Monangai CHI	0.5	1	+100%
10-04	D'Andre Swift CHI	2.5	2	-20%
09-27	Sione Vaki DET	0.5	1	+100%
09-27	Jahmyr Gibbs DET	4.5	7	+56%
09-20	MarShawn Lloyd GB	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Chris Brooks GB	1.5	1	-33%
09-13	Tyjae Spears TEN	2.5	2	-20%
09-13	Tony Pollard TEN	1.5	1	-33%

Rhamondre StevensonRB NE vs LV

2.5DraftKings

0%0/1

2.0-0.5

—

Over in 7 of last 10

Last 1 games · receptions vs 2.5

2vs LV7% tgt

Target share: 13.2%
Targets / game: 4.0
WOPR: 0.19
aDOT: -0.4
Catch %: 75%
Snap %: 60%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -4.9

Over 2.5 by window

Last 580%4/5
Last 1070%7/10
Last 1560%9/15
This season75%3/4
vs LV0%0/1

RBs vs LV this season · against their closing line

17% went over (1 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kenneth Walker III KC	3.5	1	-71%
09-27	Travis Etienne NO	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Alvin Kamara NO	2.5	1	-60%
09-20	Omarion Hampton LAC	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Keaton Mitchell LAC	1.5	1	-33%
09-13	De'Von Achane MIA	4.5	4	-11%

Aaron Jones Sr.RB MIN vs NO

2.5DraftKings

—

Last 0 games · receptions vs 2.5

No game history for this player.

Target share: 13.1%
Targets / game: 3.8
WOPR: 0.20
aDOT: -0.1
Catch %: 60%
Snap %: 70%
RZ share: 20%
CROE: -17.6

Over 2.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season50%2/4
vs NONo games

RBs vs NO this season · against their closing line

40% went over (2 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-05	Bijan Robinson ATL	4.5	1	-78%
09-27	Ashton Jeanty LV	3.5	3	-14%
09-20	Justice Hill BAL	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Derrick Henry BAL	1.5	3	+100%
09-13	Jahmyr Gibbs DET	4.5	5	+11%

Jonathan TaylorRB IND vs PIT

2.5DraftKings

50%1/2

2.5+0.0

—

Last 2 games · receptions vs 2.5

3vs PIT14% tgt
2@ PIT4% tgt

Target share: 12.4%
Targets / game: 3.8
WOPR: 0.16
aDOT: -1.7
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 85%
RZ share: 7%
CROE: -13.9

Over 2.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season50%2/4
vs PIT50%1/2

RBs vs PIT this season · against their closing line

43% went over (3 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-01	Raheim Sanders CLE	1.5	2	+33%
10-01	Quinshon Judkins CLE	2.5	6	+140%
09-27	Samaje Perine CIN	1.5	1	-33%
09-27	Chase Brown CIN	3.5	2	-43%
09-20	TreVeyon Henderson NE	1.5	0	-100%
09-20	Rhamondre Stevenson NE	2.5	1	-60%
09-13	Bijan Robinson ATL	4.5	8	+78%

Ty JohnsonRB BUF vs LAR

2.5DraftKings

0%0/1

2.0-0.5

—

Last 1 games · receptions vs 2.5

2@ LA8% tgt

Target share: 10.3%
Targets / game: 3.0
WOPR: 0.15
aDOT: 0.0
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 32%
RZ share: 12%
CROE: +26.7

Over 2.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1533%5/15
This season50%1/2
vs LAR0%0/1

RBs vs LAR this season · against their closing line

50% went over (4 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Will Shipley PHI	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	Tank Bigsby PHI	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	Saquon Barkley PHI	2.5	1	-60%
09-27	RJ Harvey DEN	2.5	6	+140%
09-27	J.K. Dobbins DEN	0.5	1	+100%
09-21	Devin Singletary NYG	1.5	0	-100%
09-21	Cam Skattebo NYG	1.5	4	+167%
09-10	Christian McCaffrey SF	4.5	5	+11%

Alvin KamaraRB NO vs MIN

3.5DraftKings

—

Last 0 games · receptions vs 3.5

No game history for this player.

Target share: 10.2%
Targets / game: 4.0
WOPR: 0.15
aDOT: 0.4
Catch %: 79%
Snap %: 28%
RZ share: 6%
CROE: +0.7

Over 3.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season67%2/3
vs MINNo games

RBs vs MIN this season · against their closing line

50% went over (4 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Ollie Gordon II MIA	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	Jaylen Wright MIA	1.5	0	-100%
09-27	Kenny Gainwell TB	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Bucky Irving TB	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Kyle Monangai CHI	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	D'Andre Swift CHI	1.5	5	+233%
09-13	MarShawn Lloyd GB	1.5	0	-100%
09-13	Chris Brooks GB	1.5	0	-100%

Raheim SandersRB CLE vs NYJ

2.5DraftKings

—

Under in 6 of last 8Role ▲ 5.6 pts

Last 0 games · receptions vs 2.5

No game history for this player.

Target share: 9.9%
Targets / game: 2.8
WOPR: 0.13
aDOT: -1.5
Catch %: 91%
Snap %: 33%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: +8.5

Over 2.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1025%2/8
Last 1525%2/8
This season50%2/4
vs NYJNo games

RBs vs NYJ this season · against their closing line

50% went over (4 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kyle Monangai CHI	0.5	1	+100%
10-04	D'Andre Swift CHI	2.5	2	-20%
09-27	Sione Vaki DET	0.5	1	+100%
09-27	Jahmyr Gibbs DET	4.5	7	+56%
09-20	MarShawn Lloyd GB	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Chris Brooks GB	1.5	1	-33%
09-13	Tyjae Spears TEN	2.5	2	-20%
09-13	Tony Pollard TEN	1.5	1	-33%

Tony PollardRB TEN vs HOU

1.5DraftKings

75%3/4

2.2+0.8

—

Role ▲ 4.1 pts

Last 4 games · receptions vs 1.5

3@ HOU20% tgt
0vs HOU0% tgt
3@ HOU13% tgt
3vs HOU8% tgt

Target share: 9.7%
Targets / game: 2.8
WOPR: 0.16
aDOT: 1.5
Catch %: 73%
Snap %: 53%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -3.0

Over 1.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season50%2/4
vs HOU75%3/4

RBs vs HOU this season · against their closing line

40% went over (2 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Javonte Williams DAL	2.5	5	+100%
09-27	Jonathan Taylor IND	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Samaje Perine CIN	1.5	1	-33%
09-20	Chase Brown CIN	3.5	3	-14%
09-13	James Cook BUF	2.5	3	+20%

Rachaad WhiteRB WAS vs NYG

1.5DraftKings

0%0/1

1.0-0.5

—

Role ▲ 3.5 pts

Last 1 games · receptions vs 1.5

1@ NYG3% tgt

Target share: 9.2%
Targets / game: 2.8
WOPR: 0.13
aDOT: 0.4
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 42%
RZ share: 15%
CROE: +24.2

Over 1.5 by window

Last 580%4/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1573%11/15
This season67%2/3
vs NYG0%0/1

RBs vs NYG this season · against their closing line

57% went over (4 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Allgeier ARI	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	Jeremiyah Love ARI	3.5	1	-71%
09-27	Tyjae Spears TEN	2.5	0	-100%
09-27	Tony Pollard TEN	1.5	4	+167%
09-21	Kyren Williams LA	2.5	2	-20%
09-21	Blake Corum LA	0.5	1	+100%
09-13	Javonte Williams DAL	2.5	5	+100%

James Cook IIIRB BUF vs LAR

1.5DraftKings

100%1/1

2.0+0.5

—

Last 1 games · receptions vs 1.5

2@ LA5% tgt

Target share: 8.9%
Targets / game: 2.5
WOPR: 0.13
aDOT: -0.8
Catch %: 60%
Snap %: 68%
RZ share: 12%
CROE: -16.1

Over 1.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1567%10/15
This season50%2/4
vs LAR100%1/1

RBs vs LAR this season · against their closing line

50% went over (4 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Will Shipley PHI	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	Tank Bigsby PHI	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	Saquon Barkley PHI	2.5	1	-60%
09-27	RJ Harvey DEN	2.5	6	+140%
09-27	J.K. Dobbins DEN	0.5	1	+100%
09-21	Devin Singletary NYG	1.5	0	-100%
09-21	Cam Skattebo NYG	1.5	4	+167%
09-10	Christian McCaffrey SF	4.5	5	+11%

Jeremiyah LoveRB ARI vs DET

2.5DraftKings

—

Last 0 games · receptions vs 2.5

No game history for this player.

Target share: 8.8%
Targets / game: 3.2
WOPR: 0.13
aDOT: 0.5
Catch %: 85%
Snap %: 48%
RZ share: 11%
CROE: +6.8

Over 2.5 by window

Last 550%2/4
Last 1050%2/4
Last 1550%2/4
This season50%2/4
vs DETNo games

RBs vs DET this season · against their closing line

43% went over (3 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Chuba Hubbard CAR	2.5	1	-60%
10-04	AJ Dillon CAR	0.5	1	+100%
09-27	Breece Hall NYJ	3.5	3	-14%
09-27	Braelon Allen NYJ	0.5	3	+500%
09-17	James Cook BUF	2.5	1	-60%
09-13	Travis Etienne NO	2.5	7	+180%
09-13	Kendre Miller NO	12.5	0	-100%

Cam SkatteboRB NYG vs WAS

2.5DraftKings

0%0/1

2.0-0.5

—

Role ▼ 4.5 pts

Last 1 games · receptions vs 2.5

2@ WAS6% tgt

Target share: 8.7%
Targets / game: 2.2
WOPR: 0.17
aDOT: 3.6
Catch %: 89%
Snap %: 65%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: +14.4

Over 2.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1542%5/12
This season50%2/4
vs WAS0%0/1

RBs vs WAS this season · against their closing line

25% went over (2 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Jonathan Taylor IND	2.5	1	-60%
09-27	Jadarian Price SEA	1.5	1	-33%
09-27	George Holani SEA	1.5	5	+233%
09-27	Emanuel Wilson SEA	0.5	0	-100%
09-20	Javonte Williams DAL	2.5	3	+20%
09-20	Hunter Luepke DAL	0.5	0	-100%
09-13	Tank Bigsby PHI	0.5	0	-100%
09-13	Saquon Barkley PHI	2.5	1	-60%

Keaton MitchellRB LAC vs DEN

—

Role ▲ 3.5 pts

Last 0 games · receptions

No game history for this player.

Target share: 8.1%
Targets / game: 2.5
WOPR: 0.11
aDOT: -1.5
Catch %: 90%
Snap %: 33%
RZ share: 10%
CROE: +5.7

RBs vs DEN this season · against their closing line

57% went over (4 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kyle Juszczyk SF	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	Christian McCaffrey SF	4.5	3	-33%
09-27	Kyren Williams LA	2.5	6	+140%
09-27	Blake Corum LA	0.5	2	+300%
09-20	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
09-20	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	1.5	2	+33%
09-14	Kenneth Walker III KC	3.5	3	-14%

Tyjae SpearsRB TEN vs HOU

1.5DraftKings

100%1/1

5.0+3.5

—

Over in 7 of last 10Role ▼ 5.8 pts

Last 1 games · receptions vs 1.5

5vs HOU14% tgt

Target share: 7.4%
Targets / game: 1.8
WOPR: 0.10
aDOT: -2.0
Catch %: 71%
Snap %: 42%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -7.7

Over 1.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1070%7/10
Last 1580%12/15
This season50%2/4
vs HOU100%1/1

RBs vs HOU this season · against their closing line

40% went over (2 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Javonte Williams DAL	2.5	5	+100%
09-27	Jonathan Taylor IND	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Samaje Perine CIN	1.5	1	-33%
09-20	Chase Brown CIN	3.5	3	-14%
09-13	James Cook BUF	2.5	3	+20%

Braelon AllenRB NYJ vs CLE

2.5DraftKings

—

Under in 9 of last 10Role ▲ 4.6 pts

Last 0 games · receptions vs 2.5

No game history for this player.

Target share: 7.2%
Targets / game: 1.8
WOPR: 0.11
aDOT: -0.3
Catch %: 86%
Snap %: 54%
RZ share: 33%
CROE: +8.1

Over 2.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1010%1/10
Last 1513%2/15
This season25%1/4
vs CLENo games

RBs vs CLE this season · against their closing line

50% went over (4 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-01	Travis Homer PIT	0.5	0	-100%
10-01	Jaylen Warren PIT	3.5	3	-14%
09-27	Chuba Hubbard CAR	2.5	4	+60%
09-27	AJ Dillon CAR	0.5	1	+100%
09-20	Kenny Gainwell TB	1.5	3	+100%
09-20	Bucky Irving TB	2.5	4	+60%
09-13	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
09-13	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	1.5	1	-33%

Bhayshul TutenRB JAX vs PHI

1.5DraftKings

—

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▲ 6.1 pts

Last 0 games · receptions vs 1.5

No game history for this player.

Target share: 7.0%
Targets / game: 1.8
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: -3.1
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 52%
RZ share: 6%
CROE: +18.1

Over 1.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1527%4/15
This season75%3/4
vs PHINo games

RBs vs PHI this season · against their closing line

17% went over (1 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kyren Williams LA	2.5	10	+300%
09-28	Kyle Monangai CHI	1.5	0	-100%
09-28	D'Andre Swift CHI	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Tyjae Spears TEN	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Tony Pollard TEN	1.5	1	-33%
09-13	Rachaad White WAS	2.5	2	-20%

Tyler AllgeierRB ARI vs DET

1.5DraftKings

—

Role ▲ 4.3 pts

Last 0 games · receptions vs 1.5

No game history for this player.

Target share: 6.7%
Targets / game: 2.5
WOPR: 0.08
aDOT: -3.6
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 54%
RZ share: 7%
CROE: +23.8

Over 1.5 by window

Last 580%4/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season100%4/4
vs DETNo games

RBs vs DET this season · against their closing line

43% went over (3 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Chuba Hubbard CAR	2.5	1	-60%
10-04	AJ Dillon CAR	0.5	1	+100%
09-27	Breece Hall NYJ	3.5	3	-14%
09-27	Braelon Allen NYJ	0.5	3	+500%
09-17	James Cook BUF	2.5	1	-60%
09-13	Travis Etienne NO	2.5	7	+180%
09-13	Kendre Miller NO	12.5	0	-100%

Derrick HenryRB BAL vs ATL

1.5DraftKings

—

Under in 8 of last 10Role ▲ 5.1 pts

Last 0 games · receptions vs 1.5

No game history for this player.

Target share: 6.6%
Targets / game: 1.8
WOPR: 0.08
aDOT: -4.3
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 59%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: +24.8

Over 1.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1533%5/15
This season50%2/4
vs ATLNo games

RBs vs ATL this season · against their closing line

67% went over (6 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-05	Kendre Miller NO	1.5	2	+33%
10-05	Alvin Kamara NO	3.5	5	+43%
09-24	MarShawn Lloyd GB	1.5	2	+33%
09-24	Kaleb Johnson GB	0.5	1	+100%
09-24	Chris Brooks GB	1.5	1	-33%
09-20	Jonathon Brooks CAR	1.5	1	-33%
09-20	Chuba Hubbard CAR	2.5	2	-20%
09-13	Rico Dowdle PIT	1.5	2	+33%

Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA vs CIN

1.5DraftKings

0%0/1

0.0-1.5

—

Under in 8 of last 10Role ▲ 6.1 pts

Last 1 games · receptions vs 1.5

0vs CIN0% tgt

Target share: 6.1%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.07
aDOT: -3.2
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 49%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: +20.2

Over 1.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1513%2/15
This season67%2/3
vs CIN0%0/1

RBs vs CIN this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Jaylen Warren PIT	4.5	3	-33%
09-20	Woody Marks HOU	1.5	5	+233%
09-20	David Montgomery HOU	1.5	2	+33%
09-13	Bucky Irving TB	2.5	7	+180%

Emanuel WilsonRB SEA vs SF

1.5DraftKings

0%0/1

0.0-1.5

—

Under in 9 of last 10

Last 1 games · receptions vs 1.5

0vs SF0% tgt

Target share: 6.0%
Targets / game: 1.2
WOPR: 0.07
aDOT: -2.6
Catch %: 60%
Snap %: 36%
RZ share: 11%
CROE: -19.5

Over 1.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1010%1/10
Last 1513%2/15
This season25%1/4
vs SF0%0/1

RBs vs SF this season · against their closing line

75% went over (6 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Badie DEN	0.5	2	+300%
10-04	RJ Harvey DEN	3.5	10	+186%
10-04	J.K. Dobbins DEN	0.5	2	+300%
09-27	Tyler Allgeier ARI	1.5	4	+167%
09-27	Jeremiyah Love ARI	2.5	5	+100%
09-20	De'Von Achane MIA	4.5	3	-33%
09-10	Kyren Williams LA	1.5	3	+100%
09-10	Blake Corum LA	0.5	0	-100%

George HolaniRB SEA vs SF

1.5DraftKings

0%0/1

0.0-1.5

—

Under in 8 of last 10

Last 1 games · receptions vs 1.5

0vs SF0% tgt

Target share: 6.0%
Targets / game: 2.0
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: -0.8
Catch %: 88%
Snap %: 36%
RZ share: 5%
CROE: +8.9

Over 1.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1520%3/15
This season25%1/4
vs SF0%0/1

RBs vs SF this season · against their closing line

75% went over (6 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Badie DEN	0.5	2	+300%
10-04	RJ Harvey DEN	3.5	10	+186%
10-04	J.K. Dobbins DEN	0.5	2	+300%
09-27	Tyler Allgeier ARI	1.5	4	+167%
09-27	Jeremiyah Love ARI	2.5	5	+100%
09-20	De'Von Achane MIA	4.5	3	-33%
09-10	Kyren Williams LA	1.5	3	+100%
09-10	Blake Corum LA	0.5	0	-100%

Will ShipleyRB PHI vs JAX

2.5DraftKings

0%0/1

0.0-2.5

—

Under in 10 of last 10

Last 1 games · receptions vs 2.5

0vs JAX0% tgt

Target share: 5.6%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.10
aDOT: 2.2
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 36%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -8.5

Over 2.5 by window

Last 50%0/5
Last 100%0/10
Last 150%0/15
This season0%0/4
vs JAX0%0/1

RBs vs JAX this season · against their closing line

43% went over (3 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Samaje Perine CIN	1.5	0	-100%
10-04	Chase Brown CIN	3.5	11	+214%
09-27	TreVeyon Henderson NE	1.5	1	-33%
09-27	Rhamondre Stevenson NE	2.5	3	+20%
09-20	J.K. Dobbins DEN	1.5	0	-100%
09-13	Quinshon Judkins CLE	1.5	2	+33%
09-13	Dylan Sampson CLE	1.5	0	-100%

Woody MarksRB HOU vs TEN

1.5DraftKings

50%1/2

2.5+1.0

—

Last 2 games · receptions vs 1.5

4vs TEN18% tgt
1@ TEN2% tgt

Target share: 5.6%
Targets / game: 2.2
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: 2.2
Catch %: 78%
Snap %: 45%
RZ share: 14%
CROE: -0.3

Over 1.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1533%5/15
This season25%1/4
vs TEN50%1/2

RBs vs TEN this season · against their closing line

56% went over (5 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Justice Hill BAL	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	Derrick Henry BAL	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Najee Harris NYG	0.5	0	-100%
09-27	Cam Skattebo NYG	2.5	3	+20%
09-20	Will Shipley PHI	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Tank Bigsby PHI	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Saquon Barkley PHI	1.5	1	-33%
09-13	Breece Hall NYJ	2.5	2	-20%

Samaje PerineRB CIN vs MIA

—

Last 1 games · receptions

2@ MIA10% tgt

Target share: 5.5%
Targets / game: 2.0
WOPR: 0.10
aDOT: 2.0
Catch %: 62%
Snap %: 34%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -4.9

RBs vs MIA this season · against their closing line

60% went over (3 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Aaron Jones MIN	3.5	4	+14%
09-27	Kenneth Walker III KC	3.5	2	-43%
09-20	Kyle Juszczyk SF	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Christian McCaffrey SF	4.5	4	-11%
09-13	Ashton Jeanty LV	3.5	6	+71%

Justice HillRB BAL vs ATL

1.5DraftKings

—

Last 0 games · receptions vs 1.5

No game history for this player.

Target share: 5.4%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.07
aDOT: -2.5
Catch %: 83%
Snap %: 41%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: +1.2

Over 1.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season50%2/4
vs ATLNo games

RBs vs ATL this season · against their closing line

67% went over (6 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-05	Kendre Miller NO	1.5	2	+33%
10-05	Alvin Kamara NO	3.5	5	+43%
09-24	MarShawn Lloyd GB	1.5	2	+33%
09-24	Kaleb Johnson GB	0.5	1	+100%
09-24	Chris Brooks GB	1.5	1	-33%
09-20	Jonathon Brooks CAR	1.5	1	-33%
09-20	Chuba Hubbard CAR	2.5	2	-20%
09-13	Rico Dowdle PIT	1.5	2	+33%

Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS vs NYG

—

Role ▲ 5.2 pts

Last 2 games · receptions

0vs NYG3% tgt
0@ NYG0% tgt

Target share: 5.2%
Targets / game: 1.8
WOPR: 0.08
aDOT: 0.6
Catch %: 71%
Snap %: 47%
RZ share: 7%
CROE: +1.1

RBs vs NYG this season · against their closing line

57% went over (4 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Allgeier ARI	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	Jeremiyah Love ARI	3.5	1	-71%
09-27	Tyjae Spears TEN	2.5	0	-100%
09-27	Tony Pollard TEN	1.5	4	+167%
09-21	Kyren Williams LA	2.5	2	-20%
09-21	Blake Corum LA	0.5	1	+100%
09-13	Javonte Williams DAL	2.5	5	+100%

David MontgomeryRB HOU vs TEN

1.5DraftKings

0%0/1

1.0-0.5

—

Last 1 games · receptions vs 1.5

1vs TEN6% tgt

Target share: 5.0%
Targets / game: 1.8
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: 3.6
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 55%
RZ share: 8%
CROE: +22.4

Over 1.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season75%3/4
vs TEN0%0/1

RBs vs TEN this season · against their closing line

56% went over (5 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Justice Hill BAL	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	Derrick Henry BAL	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Najee Harris NYG	0.5	0	-100%
09-27	Cam Skattebo NYG	2.5	3	+20%
09-20	Will Shipley PHI	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Tank Bigsby PHI	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Saquon Barkley PHI	1.5	1	-33%
09-13	Breece Hall NYJ	2.5	2	-20%

Omarion HamptonRB LAC vs DEN

—

Role ▼ 4.9 pts

Last 1 games · receptions

6vs DEN16% tgt

Target share: 4.3%
Targets / game: 1.2
WOPR: 0.06
aDOT: -3.0
Catch %: 80%
Snap %: 50%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -3.6

RBs vs DEN this season · against their closing line

57% went over (4 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kyle Juszczyk SF	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	Christian McCaffrey SF	4.5	3	-33%
09-27	Kyren Williams LA	2.5	6	+140%
09-27	Blake Corum LA	0.5	2	+300%
09-20	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
09-20	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	1.5	2	+33%
09-14	Kenneth Walker III KC	3.5	3	-14%

TreVeyon HendersonRB NE vs LV

1.5Underdog

100%1/1

6.0+4.5

—

Under in 9 of last 10

Last 1 games · receptions vs 1.5

6vs LV13% tgt

Target share: 4.1%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.06
aDOT: 0.0
Catch %: 33%
Snap %: 43%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -51.6

Over 1.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1010%1/10
Last 1533%5/15
This season0%0/3
vs LV100%1/1

RBs vs LV this season · against their closing line

17% went over (1 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kenneth Walker III KC	3.5	1	-71%
09-27	Travis Etienne NO	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Alvin Kamara NO	2.5	1	-60%
09-20	Omarion Hampton LAC	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Keaton Mitchell LAC	1.5	1	-33%
09-13	De'Von Achane MIA	4.5	4	-11%

Kendre MillerRB NO vs MIN

—

Last 0 games · receptions

No game history for this player.

Target share: 3.5%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.05
aDOT: 0.2
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 20%
RZ share: 7%
CROE: -14.2

RBs vs MIN this season · against their closing line

50% went over (4 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Ollie Gordon II MIA	1.5	2	+33%
10-04	Jaylen Wright MIA	1.5	0	-100%
09-27	Kenny Gainwell TB	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Bucky Irving TB	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Kyle Monangai CHI	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	D'Andre Swift CHI	1.5	5	+233%
09-13	MarShawn Lloyd GB	1.5	0	-100%
09-13	Chris Brooks GB	1.5	0	-100%

Brian RobinsonRB ATL vs BAL

0.5Underdog

—

Last 0 games · receptions vs 0.5

No game history for this player.

Target share: 2.9%
Targets / game: 0.8
WOPR: 0.04
aDOT: -1.3
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 36%
RZ share: 25%
CROE: +15.3

Over 0.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season50%2/4
vs BALNo games

RBs vs BAL this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyjae Spears TEN	2.5	1	-60%
10-04	Tony Pollard TEN	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Javonte Williams DAL	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Travis Etienne NO	1.5	2	+33%
09-20	Alvin Kamara NO	2.5	5	+100%
09-13	Jonathan Taylor IND	2.5	3	+20%

J.K. DobbinsRB DEN vs LAC

1.5Underdog

0%0/1

1.0-0.5

—

Under in 8 of last 10

Last 1 games · receptions vs 1.5

1@ LAC9% tgt

Target share: 2.9%
Targets / game: 1.0
WOPR: 0.04
aDOT: 0.0
Catch %: 75%
Snap %: 40%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -2.4

Over 1.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1520%3/15
This season25%1/4
vs LAC0%0/1

RBs vs LAC this season · against their closing line

57% went over (4 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	George Holani SEA	1.5	1	-33%
10-04	Emanuel Wilson SEA	1.5	3	+100%
09-27	Ty Johnson BUF	1.5	4	+167%
09-27	James Cook BUF	1.5	0	-100%
09-20	Ashton Jeanty LV	3.5	4	+14%
09-13	Tyler Allgeier ARI	0.5	2	+300%
09-13	Jeremiyah Love ARI	2.5	2	-20%

Jaylen WrightRB MIA vs CIN

—

Role ▼ 4.2 pts

Last 1 games · receptions

1vs CIN7% tgt

Target share: 2.1%
Targets / game: 0.5
WOPR: 0.02
aDOT: —
Catch %: —
Snap %: 22%
RZ share: —
CROE: —

RBs vs CIN this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
10-04	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	1.5	2	+33%
09-27	Jaylen Warren PIT	4.5	3	-33%
09-20	Woody Marks HOU	1.5	5	+233%
09-20	David Montgomery HOU	1.5	2	+33%
09-13	Bucky Irving TB	2.5	7	+180%

Isaiah DavisRB NYJ vs CLE

1.5Underdog

0%0/1

1.0-0.5

—

Under in 9 of last 10Role ▼ 3.7 pts

Last 1 games · receptions vs 1.5

1vs CLE9% tgt

Target share: 0.8%
Targets / game: 0.2
WOPR: 0.01
aDOT: —
Catch %: —
Snap %: 10%
RZ share: —
CROE: —

Over 1.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1010%1/10
Last 1527%4/15
This season0%0/3
vs CLE0%0/1

RBs vs CLE this season · against their closing line

50% went over (4 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-01	Travis Homer PIT	0.5	0	-100%
10-01	Jaylen Warren PIT	3.5	3	-14%
09-27	Chuba Hubbard CAR	2.5	4	+60%
09-27	AJ Dillon CAR	0.5	1	+100%
09-20	Kenny Gainwell TB	1.5	3	+100%
09-20	Bucky Irving TB	2.5	4	+60%
09-13	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	0.5	0	-100%
09-13	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	1.5	1	-33%

Chris RodriguezRB JAX vs PHI

1.5Underdog

0%0/3

0.7-0.8

—

Under in 10 of last 10Role ▼ 3.1 pts

Last 3 games · receptions vs 1.5

0vs PHI0% tgt
1vs PHI5% tgt
1@ PHI5% tgt

Target share: 0.0%
Targets / game: 0.0
WOPR: 0.00
aDOT: —
Catch %: —
Snap %: 27%
RZ share: —
CROE: —

Over 1.5 by window

Last 50%0/5
Last 100%0/10
Last 150%0/15
This season0%0/4
vs PHI0%0/3

RBs vs PHI this season · against their closing line

17% went over (1 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Kyren Williams LA	2.5	10	+300%
09-28	Kyle Monangai CHI	1.5	0	-100%
09-28	D'Andre Swift CHI	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Tyjae Spears TEN	2.5	2	-20%
09-20	Tony Pollard TEN	1.5	1	-33%
09-13	Rachaad White WAS	2.5	2	-20%

Dameon PierceRB PHI vs JAX

0.5PrizePicks

50%1/2

0.5+0.0

—

Under in 10 of last 10Role ▼ 3.6 pts

Last 2 games · receptions vs 0.5

1@ JAX3% tgt
0vs JAX0% tgt

Target share: 0.0%
Targets / game: 0.0
WOPR: 0.00
aDOT: —
Catch %: —
Snap %: 16%
RZ share: —
CROE: —

Over 0.5 by window

Last 50%0/5
Last 100%0/10
Last 157%1/15
This seasonNo games
vs JAX50%1/2

RBs vs JAX this season · against their closing line

43% went over (3 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Samaje Perine CIN	1.5	0	-100%
10-04	Chase Brown CIN	3.5	11	+214%
09-27	TreVeyon Henderson NE	1.5	1	-33%
09-27	Rhamondre Stevenson NE	2.5	3	+20%
09-20	J.K. Dobbins DEN	1.5	0	-100%
09-13	Quinshon Judkins CLE	1.5	2	+33%
09-13	Dylan Sampson CLE	1.5	0	-100%

Najee HarrisRB NYG vs WAS

1.5Underdog

0%0/1

0.0-1.5

—

Role ▼ 9.8 pts

Last 1 games · receptions vs 1.5

0@ WAS0% tgt

Target share: 0.0%
Targets / game: 0.0
WOPR: 0.00
aDOT: —
Catch %: —
Snap %: 17%
RZ share: —
CROE: —

Over 1.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season0%0/3
vs WAS0%0/1

RBs vs WAS this season · against their closing line

25% went over (2 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Jonathan Taylor IND	2.5	1	-60%
09-27	Jadarian Price SEA	1.5	1	-33%
09-27	George Holani SEA	1.5	5	+233%
09-27	Emanuel Wilson SEA	0.5	0	-100%
09-20	Javonte Williams DAL	2.5	3	+20%
09-20	Hunter Luepke DAL	0.5	0	-100%
09-13	Tank Bigsby PHI	0.5	0	-100%
09-13	Saquon Barkley PHI	2.5	1	-60%

How to read this

L10 graph / hit: the player’s last 10 games against this week’s line (green over, red under). L10 avg · vs line is their last-10 average and how far it sits from the line.
Target share, air yards share and WOPR (1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share, nflverse) cover the last 4 games; Role ▲/▼ marks a 3+ point target-share change against the 4 games before. aDOT, Catch %, YAC/rec and RACR (yards per air yard) are this season.
Hit window sets which games the graph, hit rate and average count: last 5, 10 or 15, this season, or only games against this week’s opponent. Research flags always use the last 10.
RZ share, EZ tgts, Deep % and 3rd-down share come from nflverse play-by-play this season: red zone = inside the 20, end zone = thrown at or beyond the goal line, deep = 20+ air yards. CROE is catch rate minus nflverse’s expected catch rate for the same throws (points); YACOE is yards after catch minus nflverse’s expected, per catch.
Opp columns rank what this week’s defense allowed to the position over its last 10 games; #1 allowed the most (green = soft, red = tough). Pos. vs close is how often players at the position went over their consensus closing line against this defense this season (SportsGameOdds).
Research flags describe past games only; they are not a projection or a pick. Click any row for that player’s game-by-game detail and a link to full Prop Research.